Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,094.45 an ounce on Thursday, snapping a two-day losing streak as softer-than-expected jobs data and weaker oil steadied sentiment. The market is now turning to U.S. nonfarm payrolls for the next signal on the Federal Reserve’s path, w
Gold caught its breath on Thursday—climbing as U.S. hiring cooled, oil slid again, and comments from the Federal Reserve chair landed closer to what markets wanted to hear.
Spot gold was up 1.6% at $4,094.45 an ounce after touching its highest level since June 23 in the previous session. The move capped a recovery from Wednesday’s close at $4,029.89, when the metal snapped a two-day losing streak after U.S. private payrolls data for June.
The timing mattered. Traders were already weighing softer-than-expected jobs data and lower oil prices, but the day’s focus shifted to what comes next: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June, seen as fresh evidence for the Federal Reserve’s trajectory.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had also helped set the tone. On Wednesday, he said inflation expectations and risks had eased in recent weeks. He reiterated the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target, while warning against expectations of looser policy.
By Thursday, the market’s math was still pointed toward tightening. Traders saw a 63% chance of a rate hike by September, using the CME FedWatch tool. That matters for gold because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bullion.
The new data pulse fed that same debate. The U.S. economy saw job creation cool sharply heading into the summer, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For June, nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 57,000. That was slower than the downwardly revised 129,000 added in May and worse than the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast.
Edgar Su | Reuters
For Nikos Tzabouras, a senior market analyst at Tradu.com, the rebound was clear—but not all the way to safety. “The precious metal is rebounding today after Fed Chair (Kevin) Warsh struck a less hawkish tone at the ECB forum,” he said.
Tzabouras also set a boundary around what weaker data could do. Higher employment weakness could help gold inch toward $4. 250. but it would likely be unable to pull the market fully out of bear territory. “Anything above 100. 000 jobs would likely be sufficient to sustain Fed hike expectations and keep bullion vulnerable to deeper declines toward $3. 500. ” he said.
Oil, too, helped keep the pressure off. Oil fell for a third consecutive day after Qatar said Iran and the U.S. had made progress in indirect talks focusing on the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices tend to temper inflation worries. which in turn supports bets that the Fed could adopt a less restrictive policy stance.
The climb wasn’t limited to gold. Spot silver rose 1.8% to $60.21 per ounce. Platinum gained 2.6% to $1,617.10, while palladium added 2.1% to $1,234.86.
Now the market waits for U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June to test how far this relief can go. For gold, the question isn’t whether hiring slowed—it’s whether it slowed enough to shift expectations before the next downturn in sentiment finds its footing.
spot gold $4 094.45 U.S. nonfarm payrolls Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh jobs data oil prices CME FedWatch rate hike by September silver platinum palladium