SpaceX IPO – SpaceX’s landmark IPO lit up Nasdaq on Friday, but the immediate aftershock rippled through other rocket-linked stocks. KeyBanc upgraded Firefly Aerospace and Rocket Lab to overweight, set a $50 price target for Firefly and $135 for Rocket Lab, and argued the
For one day, the SpaceX IPO looked like pure ignition.
Shares began trading Friday on Nasdaq and jumped 19%, valuing the Elon Musk-controlled rocket maker at $2.1 trillion. The listing was the largest initial public offering in history—one of those moments that makes investors stare at their screens and ask what happens next.
But the rest of the space market didn’t celebrate in sync.
The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF edged lower by about 1% the same day, while several aerospace stocks fell sharply. Rocket Lab slid nearly 11%, and Firefly tumbled 19% as the IPO’s spotlight moved across the industry.
KeyBanc Capital Markets sees that drop as the opening, not the end. The bank upgraded Firefly Aerospace and Rocket Lab to overweight from sector weight, putting clear numbers behind the call.
KeyBanc set a price target of $50 on Firefly, implying 57% upside from Friday’s close. For Rocket Lab, it gave a $135 target, suggesting a 32% increase from its last closing price. The bank’s pitch is that the post-IPO swings are temporary, and that the broader space buildout is still accelerating.
“Post SPCX IPO-related volatility, we see compelling opportunities across the rapidly growing space sector,” KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock wrote Sunday in a report to clients.
KeyBanc’s reasoning connects the market’s jitters to bigger tailwinds: supportive macro, budgets, and increasing institutional interest. It also points investors toward companies it describes as well-capitalized. with “idiosyncratic growth vectors” tied to national security and NASA priorities—plus “enablers” across the wider space ecosystem.
Leshock also framed the demand picture in stark terms: NASA activity is accelerating at a pace not seen since the Apollo era, while launch supply remains structurally constrained amid exponential growth in satellites and space-based applications.
That view is landing inside a familiar consensus on Wall Street—at least for stock coverage.
KeyBanc’s call matches how analysts have been positioned. Of the 10 analysts covering Firefly, eight carry a buy or strong buy rating. Of the 22 analysts covering Rocket Lab, 17 similarly rate it a buy or strong buy.
The market’s recent tape, though, explains why the upgrades are getting attention now. Firefly has fallen 21% in the past month, but it is ahead 57% in the past six since going public last August. Rocket Lab is down 18% over the past month. while it remains up 85% over the past half year. following its own late-2020 IPO.
The sequence is hard to miss: SpaceX surged when it began trading on Friday, while the broader aerospace trade slipped, and then the analyst upgrades arrived with targets that treat the selloff as a chance to step in.
Where the story goes from here depends on whether institutional interest continues to widen beyond the headline name. For now. KeyBanc is betting that the pullback in Rocket Lab and Firefly won’t last as long as investors fear—because NASA’s push. satellite growth. and constrained launch capacity aren’t going anywhere fast.
SpaceX IPO Rocket Lab Firefly Aerospace KeyBanc Michael Leshock Nasdaq iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF NASA space stocks