With Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund projected to run low by 2032, women face a double risk: longer retirement lifespans and lower lifetime earnings mean they would lose more if Congress fails to act. Data cited by a 2023 Social Se
By the time Social Security checks start to matter most, the math is already running ahead of the money.
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund—known as OASI—has been projected to be depleted in as little as six years. or seven if outcomes are more favorable. Without congressional intervention. the program is barreling toward a shortfall by 2032. threatening the retirement income for 63 million Americans who receive Social Security benefits funded through the contributions workers make over their lifetimes.
For older people relying on those payments for essentials like food and housing, the risk isn’t abstract. When benefits come under pressure, budgets shrink quickly—and the damage won’t be evenly shared.
Women are likely to take the hardest hit because they often draw Social Security for longer, yet start retirement with less of a cushion.
Women live longer in retirement, but receive less income
Women at age 65 are expected to live from another 23.9 years on average, compared with 21.4 years for men. That means benefits can be needed for more years. But the longer runway comes with a smaller pool of cash.
In 2019, the average Social Security benefit for women was $13,505—nearly $4,000 less than the $17,374 average for men. The gap is larger in more recent analysis summarized by personal finance website FinanceBuzz: women receive $5,254 less per year in Social Security benefits compared to men.
FinanceBuzz’s analysis also points to why the difference persists even though many households count on Social Security jointly: many women receive benefits connected to a spouse who earned more over a lifetime.
The gap isn’t uniform across the country, either. In Utah, men receive 27% more in Social Security benefits than women. Men there receive an average of $2,400 monthly compared to $1,751 for women. In Louisiana. the disparity is even sharper: women are paid $1. 552 monthly on average—described as the smallest Social Security benefit nationally—and more than $200 below the national average for women. Even in Delaware. where women receive the highest average monthly benefit of $1. 978. the amount still falls short of men’s by more than $400.
Across every state mentioned in the analysis, men receive more than $2,000 on average monthly, while women don’t reach that level in even one state.
That’s where the stakes turn from financial to political. If Social Security has to change—and if lawmakers don’t spread the burden in a careful way—women’s lower starting point and longer drawdown period can make the same cut hit harder.
The Social Security Administration itself underscored that vulnerability in a 2023 report. “Political risks may vary in part because women generally have lower lifetime earnings and. for that reason. depend more than men on Social Security benefits in retirement. ” the report stated. It added: “Thus. the risk related to any future legislated changes in Social Security benefits may be greater for women than for men.”.
Time away from work can erase benefits before retirement begins
The difference in benefits is shaped not only by earnings, but by time spent out of the workforce. FinanceBuzz points out that “each year out of the workforce can count as a zero in the benefits calculation. ” describing how the effect can compound over time and create a substantial loss in future Social Security income.
It also notes that women work more part-time jobs—jobs that generate lower wages and translate into lower benefit payments down the road. Put together, the equation can leave fewer resources to absorb any future reduction.
Even if benefits were cut sharply across the board, women’s position makes the outcome more precarious.
Without a fix, a cut could land fast—and hit everyone
A coming shortfall would not necessarily arrive gently. Without a plan to address the insolvency crisis. everyone receiving Social Security benefits faces an immediate 24% cut to their benefits. described by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) as “deep. abrupt benefit cuts that would affect all beneficiaries. regardless of age or need.”.
Potential solutions exist, but the kinds of changes under discussion depend heavily on whether lawmakers can agree on something politically difficult: how to secure Social Security’s finances without shifting the burden in a way the public would reject.
One CRFB proposal would cap Social Security payments to $100,000 per couple. The stated aim is to reduce payouts to wealthy retirees who rely on the monthly benefits the least.
Another approach emerged in a New York Times op-ed this week from Senators Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Their proposal would lift the payroll tax cap to replenish the Social Security trust by collecting more for Social Security withholding above the current $184. 500 income cap—a limit that affects highest earners.
In the op-ed, Moreno and Warren wrote, “Social Security was created by overwhelming bipartisan congressional majorities.” They added, “Today, members of Congress from both parties must come together again to save it.”
The trust fund timeline is moving, and so is the pressure on lawmakers—because for many households, the benefits aren’t a supplement. They are the plan.
Analytical line grounded in the facts already on the record: when Social Security’s projected depletion timeline moves toward 2032 and a 24% cut is described as the likely outcome without a plan. the gender gaps in average benefits—$13. 505 for women versus $17. 374 for men in 2019. and $5. 254 less per year for women in FinanceBuzz’s more recent analysis—mean the same policy decision would land unequally. That inequality is reinforced by the Social Security Administration’s 2023 warning that future legislated changes may carry greater risk for women due to lower lifetime earnings and greater reliance on benefits in retirement.
Social Security OASI trust fund women retirement gender pay gap retirement income payroll tax cap Bernie Moreno Elizabeth Warren CRFB FinanceBuzz