Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hits lowest level since May after President Donald Trump claimed ‘oil is pouring out’
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since late May, according to shipping data from trade intelligence firm Kpler, even as President Donald Trump continues to say the critical waterway is fully open and under U.S. control.
Kpler data showed an average of 10 commodity vessels transited the strait per day over a recent 10-day period, down sharply from more than 15 ships a day just days earlier. Traffic fell further on individual days, with only two vessels passing through on Saturday, September 5, and six on Sunday, September 6. Most used what shipping trackers describe as “the Iranian route” along the coastline.
Kpler data showed that of the six ships that transited the strait, one was a very large crude carrier and three were bulk carriers carrying metals, grains or oilseeds. Separately, LSEG data showed a tanker carrying refined petroleum products from a Saudi port attempted to exit the strait but turned back. Kpler also reported that no very large crude carrier had exited the strait since the preceding Wednesday.
A sharp escalation drove the decline
The decline in traffic followed a weekend of military escalation in the Gulf. U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one near Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked American warships in the region.
The IRGC Navy said it had targeted three tankers that it accused of using unauthorized routes through the strait, along with three additional U.S. vessels elsewhere in the region.
Maritime risk firm Marisks characterized the exchange as a major escalation, warning that commercial tankers were increasingly being used as tools of reciprocal economic pressure between the two sides. The firm said the situation was blurring the line between military confrontation and commercial shipping. It assessed the risk to Iranian or Iran-linked vessels as extreme and the risk to U.S.-linked or U.S.-escorted shipping as materially elevated across the strait and Gulf of Oman.
According to UKMTO’s weekly maritime security report, 27 projectile strike incidents affecting vessels in and around the strait have been recorded since early July.
Donald Trump’s repeated claims of control
On August 27, Trump declared, “The Strait of Hormuz is open. We have control and we have the blockade. Iran is not getting anything; nothing is going through.” The White House later cited the remarks in a press release.
A day earlier, Trump made a similar claim, saying, “The Strait is open. We take a lot of ships through the Strait now. … It’s a very functioning strait. A lot of oil is pouring out.”
But NBC News, citing maritime tracking data from Kpler and Windward, reported that ship traffic had not recovered despite Trump’s statements. The network also reported that some countries had rerouted shipments, disrupting global trade and contributing to higher oil prices.
Trump made similar statements throughout August. On August 10, he said the U.S. Navy was “the only one that has control of the Strait of Hormuz right now.” On August 21, he said the U.S. had “total control of that entire region” involving the strait, according to remarks compiled in a White House press release.
The same release quoted former Deputy National Security Advisor KT McFarland, who said Iran “overplayed its hand” by closing the strait, and West Point urban warfare studies chair John Spencer, who said “the reality is clear: the U.S. blockade of Iran is effective.”
Trump has also offered a more qualified assessment. In an exchange with reporters reported by PBS NewsHour and the Associated Press, he said the strait was “sort of open right now,” adding that ships could still be targeted by mines or other attacks and that operators did not want to risk their “billion-dollar boats.”
Fuel prices hit record highs as disruption continues
The decline in shipping has coincided with record diesel prices in the United States. According to data released by GasBuddy on September 4, the national average price of diesel reached an all-time high of $5.85 per gallon, surpassing the previous record set in June 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
AAA data cited by NPR put the previous 2022 peak at $5.81 per gallon but also confirmed the new $5.85 average as a record. GasBuddy said diesel prices had risen more than $2 per gallon over the past year, from $3.70 in September 2025.
Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, said in comments reported by a South Dakota television station that “diesel is the fuel that moves the economy,” citing its importance to freight trucking, farming and construction. GasBuddy attributed the increase to geopolitical tensions, higher crude oil prices, reduced international refining capacity and tight global inventories.
Gasoline prices have also risen. AAA said the national average for regular gasoline remained above $4 per gallon throughout August for the first time, according to figures reported by Fox Business.
AAA separately said, in comments reported by Common Dreams, that “the national average has never been above $4 per gallon on Labor Day.” The previous Labor Day record was $3.82, set on September 3, 2012.