Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer gets warning sign as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shoots ahead of him in popularity with his odds of reelection on the line
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer received a fresh warning sign as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez scored a substantially stronger favorability rating in a new poll amid speculation that she could challenge him in the 2028 Democratic Senate primary. A new poll released on Thursday, September 3, shows Ocasio-Cortez with a positive net favorability rating while Schumer remains deeply underwater. The numbers add to uncertainty surrounding Schumer’s reelection prospects as frustration with his leadership grows within parts of the Democratic Party.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez opens a 21-point favorability gap
The Education Reform Now Advocacy poll found Schumer with a net favorability rating of -13 points among New York respondents, compared with +8 points for Ocasio-Cortez. Fifty-two percent of respondents viewed Schumer unfavorably, while 39% viewed him favorably and 10% were unsure. By comparison, Ocasio-Cortez was viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 39%, while 14% said they were unsure.
The survey of 505 New York respondents was conducted from August 19 to 21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
A potential Senate challenge looms
While Ocasio-Cortez has not announced whether she will challenge Schumer, who is up for reelection in 2028, a March 2025 Data for Progress poll suggested she could launch a hypothetical primary campaign as a formidable challenger. Among 767 likely New York Democratic primary voters surveyed, 55% said they would support Ocasio-Cortez, compared with 36% for Schumer. Nine percent were undecided, giving the progressive lawmaker a lead of nearly 20 points.
Prediction markets also favor AOC. As of Thursday, Kalshi traders gave Ocasio-Cortez a 46% chance of winning the Senate nomination, compared with Schumer’s 34%.
Presidential ambitions remain an option for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Many progressives see Ocasio-Cortez as a potential successor to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, particularly as the Democratic Party searches for a leading voice on the left. She has not ruled out a presidential bid and addressed speculation about her political future during a May conversation with former Barack Obama adviser David Axelrod. “My ambition is to change this country,” she said. “Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers’ rights are forever, women’s rights, all of that, and so anyways… to a finer point to your question is that when you aren’t attached, when you haven’t been, like, fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, it is tremendously liberating.”
On Thursday, Politico reported that New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a close Ocasio-Cortez ally, had signed a Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) petition describing her as “the most viable left contender for president in 2028,” although he has not publicly endorsed her. Traders on Polymarket gave her a 62% chance of pursuing the Democratic presidential nomination.
Some Democrats believe Ocasio-Cortez would be better positioned in a Senate race than a national presidential contest, particularly after the progressive movement made significant gains in New York’s Democratic primaries this year. Others question whether a candidate with close ties to the DSA could win a national election and believe a more centrist Democrat might perform better with moderate and independent voters.
Chuck Schumer’s unpopularity follows Democratic frustration
The Senate minority leader’s declining popularity follows growing discontent among Democrats over what critics have described as an insufficiently aggressive response to the Trump administration. The backlash intensified last year after Schumer helped advance a Republican-backed government funding bill without securing concessions, prompting calls for a primary challenge. While Ocasio-Cortez’s political ambitions remain unclear, her considerably stronger popularity in the latest New York survey spells a warning sign for the Senate minority leader ahead of his 2028 reelection.