Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sister Darline gets fresh odds of winning South Carolina’s Republican Senate special primary after her first major debate
Darline Graham’s chances of winning South Carolina’s Republican Senate special primary received a modest boost on prediction markets following her first major debate on Monday, August 3, even as the race remains highly competitive. The Trump-backed candidate used the debate to reinforce her conservative platform and portray herself as an outsider committed to advancing the president’s agenda. While betting markets show growing confidence in Graham after the event, recent polls suggest the contest remains fluid and could ultimately require a runoff.
Darline Graham reinforced her pro-Trump message during debate
During Monday night’s debate, Graham emphasized that she stands “100 percent” with President Donald Trump and pledged to support the SAVE America Act, including backing the elimination of the Senate filibuster if necessary to pass the legislation. “If it were up to the Democrats, they would just open our borders and have everyone in here interfering with our elections,” she said.
Graham also focused on healthcare, arguing that Medicare must be protected for seniors while calling for greater price transparency. “Healthcare costs are killing South Carolinians; it can easily bankrupt a family,” she said.
Following the debate, Graham thanked viewers in a post on X, describing herself as a “hard worker,” reiterating her commitment to Trump’s agenda and asking voters for their support.
If the filibuster is the only thing standing in the way of passing the SAVE America Act, then I'm a YES vote to end it.
There's too much at stake. Democrats refuse to protect our elections or our children from the transgender agenda.
It's time to get this done for President… pic.twitter.com/ToXK1n381W— Darline Graham (@DarlineGrahamSC) August 3, 2026
Prediction markets move in Darline Graham’s favor
Betting markets registered a slight increase in Graham’s chances immediately after the debate. On Polymarket, her odds of winning the Republican nomination climbed from about 59.4% at 6:30 p.m. ET before the debate to roughly 62% by 10:20 p.m. ET, before reaching 63.4% by 11:02 p.m. ET. Rep. Ralph Norman’s chances stood at about 19%, while Rep. Russell Fry’s were 17.4%.
Kalshi reflected a similar trend. Graham’s odds increased from 60.4% before the debate to 63% by 10:10 p.m. ET. Norman’s chances were 21.2%, while Fry’s fell to 16%.
Polls point to a competitive race
Despite Graham’s advantage on prediction markets, traditional polling continues to paint a less decisive picture. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters, conducted July 28 and July 29, found Norman leading with 22%, followed by Graham at 19%, Fry at 12% and former Gov. Mark Sanford at 11%. Twenty-five percent of respondents remained undecided. The poll had a margin of error of 4.3%.
Another survey by co/efficient, conducted July 28 to July 30 among 857 likely Republican primary voters, showed Graham leading with 30%, ahead of Fry’s 16% and Norman’s 15%. The poll’s margin of error was 3.33 percentage points.
Runoff remains a realistic possibility
The competing poll results point toward a race with no consensus frontrunner despite Graham’s improved standing after the debate. The co/efficient survey found Graham leading Norman 40% to 35% in a hypothetical runoff, with one-quarter of voters undecided. On the other hand, Graham trailed Fry 40% to 31% in another simulated runoff, while Fry also outperformed Norman by 36% to 28%.
With multiple candidates remaining competitive and a significant share of undecided voters, South Carolina’s requirement that a candidate secure more than 50% of the vote makes the prospect of a runoff increasingly likely despite Graham’s post-debate momentum — and despite Trump’s official endorsement following the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, on July 11.