TORONTO — Ten days ago in Houston, after a dual-track trade deadline as the Toronto Blue Jays clung to the very fringes of the wild-card race, John Schneider said the message relayed to players was “we’re still trying to win, we’re still trying to get into the post-season.” At four games off the pace, their playoff odds down to 4.4 per cent, it may have taken some leap of faith to buy-in, even within the American League’s deep mediocrity. Yet as they reported for work Thursday a mere 1.5 games back of the playoffs, having leapfrogged two of the six teams in front of them, they suddenly had a whole lot more to grasp onto.
“Going back to Houston, there are times where you have to, like, force the positivity around people, not the belief, but the positivity that, hey, this is doable,” said manager John Schneider. “When you get closer (in the standings), it just becomes more real and it motivates guys a little bit. Credit to the guys for playing the way they have up until this point. We have to continue to do it, right, for the next 40 games. It’s not going to get any easier, but I think it makes it a little bit more attainable when you look and do the math.”
Their math didn’t get better with a 7-0 loss to the Boston Red Sox, who got eight shutout innings from Payton Tolle and a game-breaking grand slam from Caleb Durbin to avert a four-game sweep. But in the midst of a crucial stretch, with six of the next nine games against the New York Yankees sandwiched around three at the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays, taking three from Boston is an important jumping off point.
With Gerrit Cole, Cam Schlittler and Ryan Weathers lined up for the weekend, the task ahead for the Blue Jays (59-64) is far from easy. But 11 wins in the past 17 games have nudged their playoff odds up to 12 per cent, as calculated by Fangraphs, and at two games back, depending on the results of later games, “we’re right in this fight,” said Max Scherzer.
“Our record’s not exactly where we want to be considering everything that’s going on this year, but it’s good for us to be this close because the fans now can get into it,” Scherzer added. “Everybody that’s around the team is a little bit more excited about where we’re going. And definitely for us being in a playoff race like this and being in the hunt, it does have everybody charged, but our job’s to win no matter what.”
Thursday’s setback is a reminder of how thin the margins can be, as after Scherzer allowed one-run over five frames, surpassing a 3,000-inning plateau that may not be reached again, a 1-0 game unravelled in the eighth inning. A leadoff infield single by Ceddanne Rafaela, on a chopper that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranged far to his right to snare while Chase Lee didn’t cover first in time, was the catalyst, leading to Durbin’s one-out slam.
Up to that point, even as Tolle kept inducing weak contact, “the game was right there,” said Ernie Clement, “just a good swing by (Caleb) Durbin, but we’re playing great baseball.”
“That’s a great series win against a really good team,” said Clement. “We’ll use that as momentum going into this next one.”
Shane Bieber starts the opener and if he can get as deep or deeper than Scherzer, that may very well set up Simeon Woods Richardson to handle the open spot Saturday left by Jameson Taillon’s forearm injury. The Blue Jays’ plan remained “up in the air,” said Schneider, but with Spencer Arrighetti due to throw a bullpen Friday ahead of a rehab outing Sunday with triple-A Buffalo, the options are relatively limited.
That’s why Scherzer throwing a season-high 92 pitches while continuing his string of solid outings since returning from the injured list July 27 is so vital, with him passing another test Thursday by pitching on a normal four days of rest for the first time since his rehab work.
“Was able to respond to that, now you keep building up, keep getting stronger,” said Scherzer. “You start finishing these outings. You’ve got to be great in your last 15 pitches. And so that’s what my focus is, continue to build up and be strong so you can finish starts.”
His ability to do that is how he became the 139th pitcher to reach 3,000 innings and among active hurlers, only Justin Verlander, who plans to retire at season’s end, has more at 3,571.1, with no one even close among those behind him. Only six other pitchers have even reached the 2,000 plateau, led by 37-year-old Chris Sale’s 2,207, while Kevin Gausman (2,045.1) and Cole (2,034.2) are the youngest members of that cohort at 35, while Logan Webb at 29 is the only pitcher under 30 to even break 1,000 innings at 1,195.1. Dylan Cease is among a handful of 30-year-olds to surpass the threshold at 1,146.2, underlining how unlikely it is someone gets to 3,000 again, at least within this generation.
“The game has changed since when he broke in, that’s a fact,” said Schneider. “The game has changed with ABS, it’s probably a couple of strikeouts a game that aren’t called because of ABS so you wonder where the strikeout totals for guys is going to go, but you wonder where the innings are going to go because of the way bullpens are used, too. So you appreciate what (Scherzer) does.”
Scherzer, who last weekend in Philadelphia moved past Walter Johnson for 10th all-time in strikeouts, called reaching 3,000 innings “a really cool milestone” while adding that “it just stinks that it comes in a loss.”
Still, the threshold “is a test of durability and being out there posting, making starts year-in and year-out,” he said, while adding “it’s fun pitching, it’s fun towing the rubber and going against a Boston Red Sox team.”
Even better is “this playoff hunt, we’re in it,” he said later. “It’s fun to be a part in a situation where every game matters, every start matters and just want to go out there compete and win.”
The Blue Jays will need to continue playing the type of baseball they have since that fateful deadline day in Houston to keep it that way.