The 2026 U.S. Open tees off Thursday, June 18, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. Scottie Scheffler is the FanDuel sportsbook favorite at +490, but a computer model built by DFS pro Mike McClure simulates the tournament 10,000 times and fl
Golf’s third major of the year doesn’t wait for anyone. It tees off on Thursday, June 18, as the 2026 U.S. Open gets underway at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York.
This will be the sixth time the U.S. Open has been played at this course, with the most recent one coming in 2018. Brooks Koepka won that year at 1 over, and the same kind of teeth-and-grit challenge is expected to return for the 2026 field.
Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the 2026 U.S. Open odds via FanDuel Sportsbook at +490. Masters winner Rory McIlroy is +900, Koepka is +2200, and PGA Championship winner Aaron Rai is a longshot at +7000. Wyndham Clark—2023 U.S. Open champion—is priced at +5000 after winning last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
But what fans are really talking about right now is what comes after the odds: the predictions built from repetition. A proprietary model from SportsLine, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. It’s been used to generate golf betting picks described as extremely profitable. and the model has also nailed 17 majors entering the weekend—including the 2026 Masters (its fifth Masters in a row). plus last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship.
When the model turned to the 2026 U.S. Open, it ran the tournament simulation 10,000 times again—and the results were surprising.
The model’s biggest “fade” lands on Xander Schauffele. One major surprise it’s calling for: Schauffele. one of the six golfers priced at +2000 or lower. stumbles and finishes outside the top 5. Schauffele is a 2024 major winner, having won two majors—the PGA Championship and the Open Championship. The model’s warning hinges on what comes after the trophies: he has only won one PGA event since then. and that was the 2025 Baycurrent Classic during the FedEx Cup Fall.
The other shock is that the contender case for Ludvig Åberg doesn’t fit the usual major résumé. Another surprise on the projected leaderboard: Åberg is a top-3 contender despite being 0 for 10 in his major career and missing the cut at last year’s U.S. Open.
The model points to momentum that’s been visible all spring. Between the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the PGA Championship, Åberg finished in the top 10 in six of seven tournaments. He also ranks second on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained. Off the tee, he’s ranked second in total driving strokes gained and 12th in average driving distance.
Even without seeing the full projected leaderboard, the setup is clear: this model isn’t just picking winners—it’s betting on where golfers either catch fire or fall out of contention.
At the same time, it’s also setting up long-shot drama. The model is targeting several longshots, including one going off around 30-1 who makes a stunning run for the title. You can only see the model’s picks here.
The field is now taking shape, and the odds already paint a wide range of possible paths to Sunday.
Here are the 2026 U.S. Open odds (odds via FanDuel and subject to change): Scottie Scheffler +490; Rory McIlroy +900; Jon Rahm +1200; Cameron Young +1500; Ludvig Åberg +1700; Xander Schauffele +2000; Brooks Koepka +2200; Matt Fitzpatrick +2200; Bryson DeChambeau +2200; Tommy Fleetwood +2500; Viktor Hovland +2700; Justin Thomas +3000; Collin Morikawa +3000; Tyrrell Hatton +3000; Robert MacIntyre +3000; Shane Lowry +4000; Hideki Matsuyama +4000; Patrick Reed +4000; Patrick Cantlay +4000; Justin Rose +4000; Joaquin Niemann +4000; Sepp Straka +4000; Chris Gotterup +4000; Si Woo Kim +4500; Wyndham Clark +5000; Sam Burns +5000; Jordan Spieth +5000; Russell Henley +5000; Ben Griffin +5000; Corey Conners +5500; Akshay Bhatia +5500; Maverick McNealy +7000; Adam Scott +7000; Tony Finau +7000; Jason Day +7000; Aaron Rai +7000; Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +7000; Min Woo Lee +7000; JJ Spaun +7000; Will Zalatoris +7000; Jake Knapp +8000; Cameron Smith +8000; Rickie Fowler +8000; Jacob Bridgeman +8000; Keegan Bradley +10000; Sahith Theegala +10000; Harris English +10000; Taylor Pendrith +10000; Alex Noren +10000; Daniel Berger +10000; Ryan Fox +10000; Max Homa +10000; Carlos Ortiz +10000; Sungjae Im +10000.
The model says the week will reward the right swings at the right time—and it’s already pointing at two names where the outcomes could swing sharply: one golfer who may be due for a fade, and one who could rewrite expectations entirely.
2026 U.S. Open odds Scottie Scheffler +490 Xander Schauffele fade Ludvig Åberg top-3 Shinnecock Hills June 18 2026 Brooks Koepka 2018 1 over