Rory McIlroy starts Sunday three shots behind Alex Smalley and can chase a calendar-year Grand Slam. With temperatures climbing over 90 degrees and light winds forecast, the week’s hardest scoring conditions may finally give way to low rounds—just as trends su
Aronimink’s Sunday has the makings of a wide-open finish, with the forecast calling for the hottest day of the week and light winds after a cooler, tougher Saturday that tightened scoring and reduced the chances for easy birdies.
Rory McIlroy will tee off the final round at 3-under and three shots behind leader Alex Smalley. giving him a direct shot at keeping a calendar-slam dream alive.. In the history of golf, no player has ever won the Grand Slam in a calendar year.. The closest someone has come is the “Tiger Slam. ” when Tiger Woods won four consecutive majors and held all four trophies simultaneously— the 2000 U.S.. Open, Open Championship, PGA Championship and the 2001 Masters.
McIlroy’s title on Sunday would carry extra layers beyond the leaderboard.. He would become the winningest European Major Champion all time with seven. surpassing the mark he currently shares with England’s Nick Faldo.. The victory would also put him on a short list of rare major streaks: he’d be the first player since Jordan Spieth in 2015 (Masters. U.S.. Open) to win the season’s first two majors.
The climb hasn’t been clean all week. McIlroy was T-105 on the leaderboard at the end of the first round after posting a 74 (+4) on Thursday.
Another key question at Aronimink is how the course plays when the weather cooperates.. After two tough, cooler days, much warmer weather moved in on Saturday.. The wind died down—at least in the morning—and hole locations became much more accessible. leading to what was described as a barrage of low scores.. The forecast for Sunday calls for temperatures creeping over 90 degrees with light winds.
If hole locations remain accessible like they were on Saturday—and if the wind stays down like it was Saturday morning—this is shaping up as a possible shootout. Smalley, meanwhile, has recent history on his side.
Alex Smalley enters Sunday with a chance to become the first first-time major winner at the PGA since Collin Morikawa won the Wanamaker Trophy at TPC Harding Park six years ago.. The PGA Championship has the highest percentage of first-time major winners at 56 percent.. And in four of the past five PGA Championships. the eventual winner was leading (either tied or outright) at the end of the third round.
That set-up matters because it also narrows what might happen if leaders stumble late.. Scottie Scheffler, the World No.. 1 and defending PGA Champion. is still in it at 1-under 209 through 54 holes. but he sits five shots out of the lead as he starts the final round.. His putter has been “ice-cold” all week at Aronimink. yet he remains close enough to force the kind of late surge Sunday often delivers.
Scheffler’s recent major pattern is strikingly consistent: in each of his previous four major championship victories. he went into the final round with the outright lead.. The list includes the 2022 Masters (led by three). 2024 Masters (led by one). 2025 PGA Championship (led by three). and 2025 Open Championship (led by four).. He also leads the PGA Tour in final-round scoring average at 67.22.
The tournament’s broader rhythm suggests Sunday charges are less common, but not impossible.. In 14 of the last 15 PGA Championships. the eventual winner was either leading or within 2 strokes of the lead at the end of the third round.. The exception was Justin Thomas. who came back from a 7-stroke deficit entering the final round to win at Southern Hills in 2022.. Even there, the record notes that Thomas was T-7 through three rounds.
One of the biggest tensions going into Sunday is the combination of scoring conditions and who’s actually positioned to benefit.. With Sunday forecasted as the hottest day of the week and with the wind expected to be light. low scores could become more likely—at the same time that multiple long-running PGA trends point toward the leader from the end of the third round.
At the top of the leaderboard, the picture heading into Sunday is led by Alex Smalley at 6 under.. Tied for second are Matti Schmid, Nick Taylor, Jon Rahm, Aaron Rai, and Ludvig Aberg at 4 under.. A trio of major winners—Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Patrick Reed—are tied for seventh at 3 under.
Rory and the field will find out whether the course is a canvas for low scores, or whether the early pressure of a major Sunday cuts harder than the temperatures suggest.
PGA Championship Aronimink Sunday round Rory McIlroy Alex Smalley Scottie Scheffler calendar-year Grand Slam Wanamaker Trophy