Republicans suffer double polling blows in North Carolina Senate race as former Gov. Roy Cooper holds commanding lead over Michael Whatley
Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper has opened a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in two new polls, giving Democrats fresh momentum in a Senate race they see as one of their best opportunities to gain a seat in November. The results reinforce a broader polling trend that has consistently placed Cooper ahead of Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, in the contest for the state’s open Senate seat.
Two new polls put Roy Cooper ahead
A Carolina Journal poll of 600 respondents conducted August 9-10 found Cooper leading Whatley 51.5% to 39%, a 12.5-point advantage. Another 4.7% supported other candidates and 4.8% remained undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four points.
An Elon University poll was similarly favorable to Cooper, giving him a 53-42% advantage. Three percent backed other candidates and 2% were undecided. The poll found considerable voter engagement, with 63% of registered voters saying they are “absolutely certain” they will vote and another 20% saying it is “very likely” they will vote.
Cooper’s support among independents was particularly strong, with the group favoring him 49% to 22%.
Polling trend favors Roy Cooper
The latest results build on several surveys that show Cooper ahead. A Fox News poll released on July 29 found him leading Whatley 53-44%, including a 57-42 advantage among voters extremely interested in the election. A The New York Times/Siena University poll had Cooper ahead 50-43, while other surveys have similarly shown him maintaining a lead.
The North Carolina Senate race is being watched closely because Democrats believe President Donald Trump’s declining approval and Cooper’s popularity could create an opening in a state where they have usually struggled to win statewide contests.
Race far from being settled, both campaigns say
Whatley spokesperson DJ Griffin dismissed the polling trend, saying Democrats are “playing the same old playbook they’ve used since 2014 — lead in the summer and lose in November.” He added that this year will “be no different.”
“Career politician Roy Cooper, with his political career stretching across 5 decades, started with universal name ID and has now spent millions on revisionist history biographical ads but is stuck where he started. All while Michael Whatley’s name ID continues to increase as he visits all 100 counties and speaks with communities across the state that Cooper ignores,” Griffin continued.
Cooper’s campaign manager Jeff Allen, meanwhile, said the race will be “very close,” adding that the campaign is working to “earn every vote.”
All eyes on North Carolina
North Carolina is particularly important because it is the only GOP-held Senate seat in a state Trump won by single digits in 2024 that Democrats are targeting. The party also faces defensive contests in Georgia and Michigan. On Thursday, August 13, Kalshi gave Democrats and Republicans an even 50% chance of controlling the Senate, while Polymarket gave Democrats a slight 53% edge.