CNN data analyst Harry Enten argued that four Republicans crossing party lines to join Democrats in a war powers resolution—requiring President Donald Trump to get congressional approval before further military action in Iran—could place an already vulnerable
The approval numbers have slid so far that even supporters of the initial decision now look unsettled by where the war is heading. In the opening polling, the conflict already started unpopular—then it got worse.
Harry Enten. a chief data analyst. described how President Donald Trump’s Iran war began with a net approval rating of -9 percentage points. based on an average of polling from CBS News. Fox News and Ipsos. But in more recent polls, the net approval rating has fallen to -23. Among independents. the shift has been sharper: an early -23 net approval rating at the start of the war dropped to -40.
The political flashpoint came this week. On Wednesday, four Republicans crossed party lines by joining Democrats in passing a war powers resolution that requires Trump to get congressional approval before taking further military action in Iran.
Enten said those votes may not be the kind of move that protects a vulnerable majority. “So those Republicans who, in fact, did not vote with the renegade Republicans, they are helping to put that Republican majority — which was already at great risk in the House — in even more risk,” he said.
The concern isn’t just about party headlines. It’s about trajectory—and the numbers appear to be moving the wrong way for Republicans. John Berman of CNN pointed to the same decline. saying. “It’s on the wrong trajectory right now.” Enten echoed that sentiment directly: “This is the wrong place. You want to be going up, not down.”.
The war powers fight also connects to a broader public question Americans keep circling: whether presidents should be able to launch force without Congress. A majority of Americans. 63%. are against presidents using military force without congressional approval. according to polling from The New York Times. Among independents, that figure is 72%.
Enten said independents—already crucial to political math—have moved against Trump and, in particular, against this war. He noted independents were “pretty much even in the 2024 election,” but have shifted “massively” against him, especially on the Iran conflict.
The political pressure doesn’t end with distrust of executive action. A Marquette University Law School poll found 77% of Americans want the ceasefire in—and want negotiations with—Iran to continue. Close to all Democrats (96%), a strong percentage of independents (81%) and more than half of Republicans back continuation of a ceasefire.
Enten framed it as a rare convergence of public mood: “They like this idea. They do not, in fact, want a re-upstart of, let’s say, much more force going on in the Middle East, much more force going on in Iran. They want the current condition to hold, whatever exactly you call it.”
United States politics House majority midterms Iran war war powers resolution Donald Trump Harry Enten independents polling ceasefire congressional approval
So they voted for the war thing and now people hate Trump more? cool cool.
Wait I thought the vote was like stopping more military action? But the article says it’s making the majority more at risk?? sounds backwards. Also -40 for independents is insane, but who are these polls even calling.
The part about 4 Republicans crossing lines like that is basically why everything goes downhill. Like they couldn’t just stay on message. I don’t even follow Iran stuff but the approval dropping from -9 to -23 just sounds like it’s getting worse, period.
This is why I hate the whole war powers thing, it always becomes a political trap. They say Trump needs Congress to approve more military action but somehow the House majority is still in danger? idk maybe those numbers would’ve dropped anyway bc the conflict already started unpopular. Also when they say “renegade Republicans” who even are they, like the ones who want to escalate? CNN always doing math but nobody explains the “trajectory” like it’s a video game.