Republicans fear Trump’s approval slide hurts midterms

Republicans fear – A New York Times/Siena College poll released May 18 shows Donald Trump’s approval at 37% with 59% disapproval, deepening GOP fears that falling public support could turn into a midterm liability. Republican strategists describe the situation as a “serious prob

For Republicans, the political calendar is still months away—but the mood inside the party is already tightening. After a New York Times/Siena College poll landed on Monday. May 18. some GOP strategists began speaking in a sharper register: Donald Trump’s falling approval ratings could become a serious liability as the midterm elections approach.

The latest survey found 37% of respondents approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove. In the previous Times/Siena poll, Trump was at 40% approval and 57% disapproval, a shift that reinforced a downward trend the party has been watching closely.

Republican leaders continue to project confidence publicly. But privately, the worries have intensified. One Republican consultant aligned with Trump called the situation dangerous for candidates in competitive races.

“It’s a serious problem. … He ran on the economy and immigration and both are in the [garbage],” the consultant said.

The strategist went further about timing, arguing that if Trump’s numbers remain weak heading toward November, Republicans will feel it at the ballot box. “If he’s sitting in the low 30s as we approach November, Republicans are screwed, period, hard stop,” the strategist added.

Veteran GOP strategist Kevin Madden pointed to broader political indicators as additional warning signals. “Presidential approval rating. right direction-wrong direction indices and consumer sentiment all provide good indicators of what mood campaigns will be encountering. ” Madden said. “Right now, all these indicators are flashing.”.

The source of that flashing—at least in the way voters describe their concerns—shows up clearly in the poll’s snapshot. Voters voiced frustration over inflation, gas prices and U.S. involvement in the Iran war.

Trump campaigned heavily on promises to strengthen the economy and avoid foreign wars after returning to office in January 2025. But even some Republicans now argue that the practical impact on everyday life has become harder to dismiss.

Susan Del Percio, a longtime Republican strategist who does not support the president, said many voters no longer believe Trump’s policies are improving their lives. “There’s war, there’s inflation, there are tariffs and Trump is telling you that it’s not that big of a deal to be patient,” she said.

Del Percio also said some supporters initially accepted economic pain tied to tariffs because they leaned into Trump’s “America-first” philosophy. In her view, that patience is fading. “We’re in mid-May and there’s just not enough time on the clock to get everything to turn around,” she added.

That time pressure is part of what makes strategists compare the current moment to past political trajectories. Del Percio compared Trump’s political situation to former President George H. W. Bush after Bush broke his famous “no new taxes” pledge in 1990.

“And Democrats took it home all the way to 1992 and the election of Bill Clinton,” she said.

She argued that Trump’s polling path now resembles Bush’s declining numbers more than three decades ago. “If you go back and look at the polling, it matches up,” Del Percio said.

Back on Capitol Hill’s other side, Democrats are watching these numbers closely—leaning into the possibility of gains even as they plan for uncertainty. Democrats have grown increasingly optimistic about retaking the House and possibly the Senate as Republican numbers weaken.

Still, Democratic strategists are not treating Trump’s troubles as a guaranteed win. Joel Payne. a Democratic strategist. said Democrats would benefit in 2026 by focusing on “Trump’s failings” and the administration’s “death spiral. ” but he also warned that deeper distrust of the Democratic establishment remains.

“I cannot put into words how angry and alienated and completely over it people are,” Payne said. “It feels like both parties have been trading spots of ‘Who does the public hate less?’”

The poll’s timing makes the tension sharper: it lands in May. with November still ahead. while both parties sense the public mood hardening in real time. For Republicans. the central fear isn’t only that Trump’s approval is slipping—it’s that the drop could shape the outcomes of competitive races before they can change the narrative.

Donald Trump Republicans midterm elections New York Times Siena poll approval ratings Kevin Madden Susan Del Percio Joel Payne inflation gas prices Iran war George H.W. Bush