Republicans edge ahead in odds of winning closely watched Wisconsin gubernatorial race as Democratic primary is rocked by withdrawals and reversals

Republicans have overtaken Democrats in prediction-market odds for Wisconsin’s open governor’s race, with Kalshi giving the GOP a 53 percent chance of winning compared with 48 percent for Democrats. Democrats held a 55 percent to 46 percent advantage, according to Newsweek‘s reporting on Kalshi’s trading data.

The shift follows a chaotic stretch for Wisconsin Democrats, with multiple candidates dropping out and one reentering the race in the three weeks before the state’s August 11 primary.

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley suspended his campaign and endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, then considered one of the field’s leading candidates. Rodriguez’s campaign later disclosed financial irregularities, including double-counted donations, underreported expenses and unpaid advertising invoices that kept scheduled television commercials off the air. She withdrew on July 17.

Crowley reversed course the next day and reentered the race with the backing of outgoing Gov. Tony Evers.

The turmoil deepened July 30 when former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes ended his campaign after reports that the Wisconsin Democratic Party had reviewed anonymous allegations of inappropriate behavior dating to 2024 and 2025. Barnes denied wrongdoing and a legal review commissioned by the party found nothing actionable, according to the Associated Press, which cited a person familiar with the review.

Barnes did not endorse a candidate but acknowledged the state of the race in his exit video, saying, “It’s become very clear who our nominee is going to be.”

How the betting markets moved

Kalshi’s market data show Democrats’ advantage steadily eroding as their primary field contracted.

According to market analysis compiled by PredictionHunt, Republican odds rose from 20 percent in mid-June to 46 percent by July 25, then reached 55 percent on August 1 before settling around 53 percent on August 3.

PredictionHunt attributed the shift to “opponent weakness, not party strength,” noting that Republican gains closely tracked Democratic withdrawals rather than a surge behind Republican nominee Tom Tiffany.

A separate PredictionEdge market snapshot similarly showed Rodriguez’s departure and Crowley’s return reshuffling a Democratic field that included Francesca Hong, Barnes, Kelda Roys and Joel Brennan. Fundraising reports showed Tiffany with the strongest overall financial position among the candidates.

Who remains on the Democratic ballot

With Barnes, Rodriguez and former Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation CEO Missy Hughes out of the race, four active Democrats remain: state Rep. Francesca Hong, state Sen. Kelda Roys, former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan and Crowley.

Hughes exited June 22. However, seven Democrats will technically appear on the August 11 ballot because several candidates withdrew after ballots were finalized. Only four active campaigns remain serious contenders.

Polling before the candidate exodus consistently showed Hong, a self-described democratic socialist, leading the fragmented field.

A late-July Marquette University Law School poll, conducted before Rodriguez’s withdrawal, again placed Hong in first. Internal polling released by the Barnes and Crowley campaigns showed similar results.

Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, told Wisconsin Watch, “Hong could certainly win the nomination with 35 to 40% of the vote,” highlighting how a divided field could allow a candidate to win without a majority.

Republicans have coalesced behind Tiffany

Republicans consolidated behind U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany early in the campaign.

Tiffany entered the race in September 2025 against Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and businessman Bill Berrien. Berrien withdrew after the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported he had used a social media account to follow a transgender adult film star.

President Donald Trump endorsed Tiffany on Truth Social on January 27, 2026, calling him a “Proven Leader who has dedicated his life to serving his Community” and promising that, as governor, Tiffany would “Grow the Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations… Keep our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Ensure LAW AND ORDER… and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment.”

Schoemann withdrew the following day, congratulating Tiffany and wishing him “great success” in November, according to the Associated Press.

Tiffany still faces primary opposition from Andy Manske, a 26-year-old medical services technician who has raised little compared with Tiffany’s more than $2 million campaign war chest, the AP reported.

Trump also endorsed Michael Alfonso, the son-in-law of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, in the Republican primary to replace Tiffany in Congress, according to The Hill.

Democrats have sought to tie Tiffany closely to Trump. Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Izzi Levy said after the endorsement that “Tiffany has proudly voted in lockstep for Washington Republicans’ expensive and unpopular agenda that has hurt families, farmers and small businesses across Wisconsin.”

Tiffany has largely avoided invoking Trump directly on the campaign trail even as Trump’s approval ratings have fallen, according to Wisconsin Public Radio.

The absentee ballot complication

The Democratic withdrawals have created a logistical challenge for voters.

Absentee voting began in late June and the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission ruled July 9 that voters who had already submitted absentee ballots could not change them on Election Day.

By the time Barnes withdrew July 30, nearly 128,000 absentee ballots had been returned. Some likely contain votes for candidates who are no longer actively campaigning.

Dane County Circuit Judge David Conway rejected a lawsuit brought by three voters and backed by the state Democratic Party seeking to allow voters who had already returned absentee ballots to cancel and resubmit them.

An open seat for the first time in 16 years

The race is Wisconsin’s first open gubernatorial contest in more than 16 years.

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers announced he would not seek a third term after winning reelection in 2022 by roughly three percentage points.

Wisconsin remains one of the country’s most closely divided battlegrounds. Trump carried the state by less than one percentage point in the 2024 presidential election, while the Cook Political Report rates the 2026 governor’s race a toss-up.

The outcome will shape the balance of power between the governor and the Republican-led Legislature, with which Evers repeatedly clashed. Democrats are also seeking legislative gains that could give either party unified control of state government for the first time in years.

Hong’s candidacy tests democratic socialism

If Hong wins the Democratic nomination, her general-election campaign would test whether the democratic socialist movement can succeed in a closely divided statewide electorate after winning races in deep-blue cities such as New York, Philadelphia and Denver.

Hong is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and the Wisconsin Assembly’s Socialist Caucus. Her platform calls for higher taxes on millionaires and large corporations, universal child care, greater public ownership of infrastructure and a moratorium on new data centers until stronger protections are established for the state’s energy grid, water supply and farmland.

She also supports abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement but has distanced herself from portions of the national DSA platform.

“The governor cannot defund police and I’m not here to govern by slogan,” Hong told voters.