Republicans’ $100 Million Texas Bet Opens a Door for Democrats

Republicans’ $90 – Republicans have already poured $90 million into trying to defeat Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the state’s Senate race—and now fear they’ll have to spend at least that much to help him win. Paxton’s Tuesday-night victory reshapes the GOP’s Senate-contr

By the time Texas returns flipped in the early hours Tuesday night, the GOP’s plan had already burned through momentum—and money.

National Republicans had spent $90 million trying to defeat Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the state’s Senate race. But Paxton’s victory over longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on Tuesday night changed the stakes overnight. What had looked like a rescue mission for Senate control quickly turned into a new problem: Republicans now worry they may have to spend at least that much again to help Paxton win the general election.

For Democrats. the moment lands like an unexpected break in a season that had been built around optimism rather than certainty. Paxton’s win also opens a pathway for Democratic State Rep. James Talarico’s campaign—moving it from something of a curiosity to a centerpiece. Republicans are already plotting ways to hit him on his socially liberal positions. Democrats are preparing to do the opposite: lean into Talarico’s celebrity-like reach and raise what they can to compete in a state where campaign costs run high.

Texas, after all, is far from the only spot where Democrats have found a door cracking open. Earlier this month. Nebraska’s primaries produced a win for a Democrat who agreed to drop out and clear the way for independent candidate Dan Osborn. Osborn pledged not to caucus with either party, but the result still takes a seat away from the GOP. Next week’s Iowa primaries are expected to deliver a victory for state Rep. Josh Turek, a candidate Washington party leaders see as the most electable option.

Democrats began the year telling themselves they had built a route to the Senate majority by recruiting all-star candidates in Maine. Michigan. Alaska. and Ohio. With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority, the outcome Democrats needed was always described as a reach. Now. potential wins in Iowa. Texas. and Nebraska provide backup options—places that are red in most modern maps but are suddenly vulnerable because of Donald Trump’s rock-bottom approval ratings. according to the reporting driving the moment.

In those scenarios, Democrats don’t have to rely on one fragile chain. If something goes wrong—like a scandal sinking Maine progressive Graham Platner. or a messy primary derailing the party’s chances in Michigan—Texas. Iowa. and Nebraska become the sort of alternatives campaigns survive on. In Texas Hold ’Em terms. Democrats no longer require a straight flush to win the pot—three of a kind might be enough.

That new reality is hitting Republicans where it hurts: the money.

“At best, we have major money issues defending red states we should not have to be defending,” a veteran GOP Senate strategist, who requested anonymity to speak frankly about the party’s conundrums, said. “At worst, we’ve given Democrats chances to win those states.”

The discontent inside GOP circles is now public, and it’s complicated.

In a statement released shortly after polls closed. the National Republican Senatorial Committee—an organization that funded numerous ads attacking Paxton during the run-up to the vote—didn’t mention Paxton. Instead, it attacked Talarico. The committee said. “A state President Trump won by nearly 14 points isn’t going to elect James Talarico — a radical leftist who thinks God is nonbinary and that Texas should be a welcome mat for illegals.” It continued: “He is the most dangerous flank of the far left. Texas isn’t swapping brisket for open borders.”.

The choice not to say Paxton’s name alongside an immediate pivot to Talarico wasn’t accidental. Republicans are aiming to unite a divided party by channeling anger toward the Democrat, using a message designed to consolidate conservatives rather than persuade swing voters.

The Club for Growth. a Republican super PAC known for investing heavily in down-ballot and statewide fights. is preparing to begin attacking Talarico as soon as possible. Early indications are that the initial ads will focus on consolidating conservatives. with heavy emphasis on the seminary student’s views on religion and on gay and transgender rights.

Talarico, for his part, doesn’t seem inclined to retreat into silence—or to accept the framing that he’s culturally out of place.

On the liberal podcast MeidasTouch, he said, “I’ve been eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton’s first indictment.” He added, “If all they have on me is lying about me being a vegan, I feel pretty good about our chances this November.”

But his strategy may be less about reassuring voters than about making the GOP uncomfortable. In the moments after Paxton’s win. he reached out to Cornyn’s supporters and pointed to Republican lawmakers as the ones who led the effort to impeach Paxton in 2023. In a video reacting to Paxton’s victory. Talarico said. “The most corrupt politician in America just became the Republican nominee for the United States Senate.”.

He also posted the message, “Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in America. He embodies the broken system we’re running against. It’s time to come together: The People vs. Ken Paxton,” alongside a social media link carrying the handle JamesTalarico, dated May 27, 2026.

The Senate seat’s price tag may be the loudest story anyone is willing to talk about.

Before polls closed. Cornyn. in an interview with CNN. predicted that a Paxton victory would cost the party “several hundred million dollars.” Other GOP strategists privately said that number was an exaggeration. but they agreed the race was likely to become one of the most expensive Senate contests ever.

Cornyn argued that money on the Texas fight could be better used elsewhere. saying. “That’s money that could be and should be better spent in places like Georgia. North Carolina. Michigan and New Hampshire.” He added that if the Texas Senate seat is truly in jeopardy. it threatens the GOP’s majority.

Part of what’s driving the scramble is fundraising—especially Talarico’s.

Talarico has used viral moments to build an online following and has already raised $40 million, a figure both parties expect to skyrocket in the coming months. Paxton, by contrast, has raised just $7 million so far.

Those numbers help explain the worry inside Republican strategy meetings about who is going to pay for the counterpunch.

Typically, Senate Leadership Fund—a super PAC controlled by allies of Majority Leader John Thune—takes the lead in Senate races. It has about $166 million on hand and has already reserved $342 million worth of airtime for the fall. None of its planned fall spend was targeted at Texas.

But the group spent millions attacking Paxton during the primary. That makes its support now politically awkward, even if it’s operationally necessary.

Many GOP strategists are hoping another player can step in: MAGA. Inc. a super PAC controlled by Trump’s political team with a $400 million war chest. The veteran GOP Senate strategist put it plainly: “Donald Trump wanted Ken Paxton to make it to the general election. and he made it happen with an endorsement.” The strategist continued. “If he wants Ken Paxton to win the general election. he has to make it happen with money and television ads.”.

The GOP’s problem is no longer only whether Paxton can win. It’s whether Republicans can afford to fight in Texas at all—after spending $90 million trying to stop him, and after Texas suddenly becomes the sort of battlefield Democrats can translate into leverage.

In the space of a single night, the Texas Senate race transformed from a party headache into a national test of whether money, messaging, and loyalty can all be made to align—before the fall bills arrive.

Texas Senate race Ken Paxton James Talarico John Cornyn National Republican Senatorial Committee Club for Growth Senate Leadership Fund John Thune MAGA Inc. Donald Trump Iowa primaries Nebraska primaries Dan Osborn Josh Turek Maine Michigan Graham Platner