Republican Steve Hilton gets fresh odds of beating Democrat Xavier Becerra to flip California in governor’s race
Democrat Xavier Becerra holds a commanding 18-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton in California’s gubernatorial race, according to a new poll released on Thursday, August 13. The two emerged from June’s contentious jungle primary and will face each other in November for control of the nation’s most populous state.
Xavier Becerra leads Steve Hilton by 18 points
The Los Angeles Times-sponsored poll, conducted by the University of California Berkeley Institute of Government Studies, found Becerra with 55% support compared with 37% for Hilton, while 7% remained undecided. Becerra also holds strong support across the Democratic coalition, as 88% of Democrats said they would vote for him, compared with 91% of Republicans backing Hilton. Among independents and voters registered with other parties, Becerra led 58% to 30%. The result represents a modest improvement over an earlier UC Berkeley IGS poll of registered voters, which showed Becerra ahead 52% to 31%, with 17% undecided.
Other polls and prediction markets favor Becerra as well
Other recent surveys showed the Democrat ahead with similarly wide margins. A Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted June 29-July 6 among 1,003 likely voters gave Becerra a 61-36% advantage, while a Kreate Strategies survey of 900 likely voters conducted June 13-17 put him ahead 58-33%. Prediction markets also heavily favor Becerra. As of Thursday, Kalshi gave him a 95.5% chance of winning, while Polymarket placed his odds at 93%.
Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the UCLA Luskin School of Affairs’ Los Angeles Initiative and a former local official, said Becerra remains the clear favorite. “I think the odds are overwhelming that the poll was relatively accurate. In fact it may even be more conservative than what will actually be,” he said. “Becerra is the overwhelming favorite to win and to win in a landslide.”
Hilton faces a difficult political environment
Becerra served as President Joe Biden’s health and human services secretary and previously represented California in Congress and served as the state’s attorney general. Hilton, on the other hand, is a conservative commentator and former adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. He is also endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Yaroslavsky said California’s Democratic lean and tensions with the Trump administration make a Hilton victory difficult. He described the Trump administration as “hostile” toward California and doubted whether voters would cross party lines for a Trump-backed candidate.
Economic concerns could shape final contest
Economic concerns, particularly housing costs, inflation and gasoline prices, could shape the final contest. Yaroslavsky pointed out that California already has higher gas prices than many other states because of its gas tax, while the Iran war has pushed prices higher nationwide, with gasoline reaching $7 a gallon in parts of California.
Becerra campaign spokesperson Jonathan Underland said the polling reflects voters’ concerns about those issues. “Today’s poll is further confirmation that California voters support Secretary Becerra’s focus on lowering the cost of living for California’s working families and standing up against the hateful and disastrous policies pushed by Trump and his endorsed candidate, Steve Hilton,” Underland said.