Republican Ken Paxton is within striking distance of Democrat James Talarico in race for Texas Senate seat, new poll finds

Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton is closing the gap on Democratic nominee James Talarico in the race for Texas’ open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. survey.

The poll found Talarico leading Paxton 46 percent to 43 percent among 625 registered Texas voters. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is effectively a statistical tie less than two months before Election Day.

The results follow several other polls showing a competitive contest as Democrats target their first statewide victory in Texas since 1994 and their first Senate win in the state since Lloyd Bentsen’s reelection in 1988.

A long-shot Democratic target

Texas has backed a Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980. Donald Trump carried the state over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, winning 56 percent of the vote to Harris’ roughly 42.5 percent.

Despite the state’s Republican lean, Democrats have continued targeting Texas as population growth and demographic changes reshape its electorate. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost his Senate bid against Republican Ted Cruz.

The Senate race opened after four-term Republican Sen. John Cornyn lost the Republican primary runoff to Paxton, the state’s attorney general. Paxton won 63.8 percent of the vote after receiving Trump’s endorsement, making Cornyn the first incumbent Texas senator to lose renomination since 1970, according to a summary of the race’s history on Wikipedia.

Talarico won the Democratic nomination with 52.4 percent of the vote against Rep. Jasmine Crockett. He has served in the Texas House since 2018.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats would need to flip four seats while defending their own to regain control. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections.

What the polls show

The Mason-Dixon survey found Talarico leading Paxton 46 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent undecided and 3 percent supporting Libertarian candidate Ted Brown.

The poll revealed notable demographic differences:

• Gender: Talarico led women 52 percent to 36 percent, while Paxton led men 51 percent to 39 percent.
• Age: Talarico led voters ages 18 to 34 by 51 percent to 37 percent and voters ages 50 to 64 by 49 percent to 41 percent. Paxton led voters ages 35 to 49 by 47 percent to 42 percent and those 65 and older by 46 percent to 45 percent.
• Region: Paxton led in East Texas, 58 percent to 38 percent, while Talarico led in Central Texas, 57 percent to 31 percent.

Other recent surveys have shown similarly narrow margins.

A SoCal Strategies poll conducted among 649 likely voters found Talarico leading 50 percent to 45 percent. The result marked a shift from the pollster’s survey, which showed Paxton ahead 49 percent to 47 percent.

A Pollsmax analysis of 31 polls found the candidates tied at 45.9 percent each in its polling average.

A YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters showed Talarico leading 48 percent to 43 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation survey of 1,167 likely voters found Talarico at 44 percent and Paxton at 43.4 percent, with 12.6 percent undecided. When voters who leaned toward a candidate were included, the race was tied at 50 percent each.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found Talarico leading Paxton by 3 percentage points, with 42 percent of registered voters supporting him and 14 percent undecided. Reporter Andrew Schneider noted that Republicans maintained a modest lead over Democrats in most other statewide contests included in the survey.

Not every poll showed Talarico ahead. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of Texas likely voters found Paxton leading 47 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided and 2 percent supporting another candidate.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the race divided sharply by age, with voters under 50 favoring Talarico by 15 points and those over 50 favoring Paxton by 11 points.

Prediction markets have also shown differing assessments of the race. Kalshi gave Talarico a 54 percent chance of winning while Polymarket placed his odds at 56 percent. Pollsmax’s model, which the outlet says uses 100,000 simulations based on polling and race fundamentals, gave Paxton a 77.1 percent chance of winning and projected a 52.4 percent to 47.6 percent result in his favor.

Statements from political observers

Matt Klink, owner and president of Klink Campaigns, told Newsweek in an email Wednesday that competitive Senate races in Ohio and Texas suggested Republicans faced broader challenges nationwide. However, he cautioned that being competitive and winning were not the same.

Klink also said that while Talarico had attracted national media attention and support from some Texas Democrats, no Democrat had won a Texas Senate race since Bentsen in 1988. He added that Bentsen would not be considered a Democrat by today’s standards.

Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Newsweek that summer polling had previously favored Democrats in reliably Republican states before November results contradicted those surveys.

Breslin also accused Talarico of enabling former President Joe Biden‘s border policies and said voters would remember resulting price increases and fentanyl deaths.

Newsweek reported that it contacted both the Paxton and Talarico campaigns by email for comment.

John Feehery, a partner at EFB Advocacy and former House Republican leadership aide, told Newsweek that Paxton was a well-known Texas politician who had won statewide office multiple times and demonstrated an ability to finish competitive races.

Dave Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College, previously told Newsweek that Paxton’s scandal-ridden past appeared to be a serious liability.

The debate standoff

Talarico has called for televised debates since challenging Paxton.

According to The Texas Tribune, the Paxton campaign said that Paxton planned to debate Talarico but had not committed to a specific host. Senior adviser Nick Maddux said in a statement carried by Houston Public Media that the campaign looked forward to discussions with potential debate hosts while accusing Talarico of misleading Texas voters about his record.

Three debates were later scheduled for September 22, October 6 and October 13, with each hosted by a different news organization, according to The Washington Examiner.

Talarico accepted the invitations, while Paxton had not confirmed his participation. His campaign said it was still working out the details.

The National News Desk reported that Talarico had renewed his call for a debate after Paxton called him a socialist during a Fox News appearance.

Fundraising and outside spending

Talarico has significantly outraised Paxton during the campaign.

Federal Election Commission filings showed Paxton with approximately $1.7 million in cash on hand, compared with more than $21 million for Talarico.

According to The Texas Tribune, 51 percent of Talarico’s fundraising came from individual donors who contributed less than $200, while 88 percent of Paxton’s contributions came from larger donors.

Talarico raised the most money in Travis County, home to Austin. Paxton’s largest county-level haul came from Dallas County, where Talarico still outraised him.

Outside spending has also increased. Politico, as reported by CBS News, said a Paxton-aligned group called Lone Star Liberty PAC launched a $15 million advertising campaign across 18 Texas media markets.

Meanwhile, the Talarico campaign filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging improper coordination involving dark-money groups linked to Paxton’s campaign treasurer. The commission was unlikely to act before Election Day because it lacked enough commissioners to open new investigations.

J. Miles Coleman, an analyst with Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said national Republican donors had been slower to support Paxton than other vulnerable candidates elsewhere, citing lingering party resentment after Paxton defeated Cornyn.

Scrutiny of the candidates

Paxton’s political and legal history remains a central focus of Democratic attacks.

In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House impeached Paxton on 20 articles alleging abuse of office and bribery. The Texas Senate later acquitted him. Paxton has maintained that the proceedings were politically motivated.

In 2020, several former aides reported Paxton to the FBI, alleging that he had abused his office to benefit political donor Nate Paul. The allegations led to firings, resignations and a lawsuit under the Texas Whistleblower Act.

A Travis County district court judge ruled in 2025 that the aides had been improperly terminated and awarded them $6.6 million. Paxton initially appealed but later dropped the appeal after launching his Senate campaign.

In 2015, Paxton was indicted on felony securities fraud charges that could have resulted in decades in prison if he had been convicted.

Talarico has faced Republican criticism over his religious commentary and progressive positions.

During a 2021 speech in the Texas Legislature, Talarico said “God is nonbinary” while opposing legislation concerning transgender issues. Republicans have repeatedly used the remark in campaign advertising.

In a September 2025 interview with Newsweek, Talarico said the comment was provocatively phrased but reflected his theological view that God exists beyond gender, a position he said most fellow Christians would not dispute.

What happens next

Texas residents must register to vote. Early voting runs from October 19 through October 30, ahead of Election Day on November 3.

With three debates scheduled and millions of dollars expected to enter the race, both campaigns are preparing to intensify outreach to undecided and independent voters during the final weeks of the contest.