Republican former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy faces record-low odds of winning Ohio gubernatorial race against Democrat Amy Acton

Former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds of winning the Ohio gubernatorial race against Democrat Amy Acton fell to a new low on Monday, September 21, according to prediction-market data. Prediction market Kalshi put Ramaswamy’s chances of winning at 43%, while Polymarket gave him a 41% chance. In comparison, Polymarket predicts Acton has a 58% chance of winning the gubernatorial contest.

Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds reach new low

Prior to the latest dip, Ramaswamy’s odds of winning the Ohio gubernatorial contest fell below Acton’s in April before recovering toward the end of May. However, his chances began trailing those of Acton around August 13 and have failed to recover since. Kalshi recently declared that Ramaswamy’s 43% figure represents his all-time low with the prediction market. Polymarket has also placed Acton ahead since late August, with its market recently showing her at 58% and Ramaswamy at 41%. 

The closely watched race is unfolding as term-limited Republican Gov. Mike DeWine prepares to leave office, and Democrats seek to flip Ohio in the midterms.

Polls show a close contest

A Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll conducted September 1-10 among 1,000 likely voters found Acton leading Ramaswamy 48% to 45%. Libertarian Don Kissick received 4%, while 3% selected someone else. When asked who the voters expected to win regardless of preference, 62% chose Ramaswamy, compared with 36% for Acton and 1% for Kissick. A Wedgewood survey of 800 likely voters with a 4-point margin of error conducted from August 11-13 showed Acton at 48% and Ramaswamy at 47%, with 7% undecided.

Earlier Fox poll favored Vivek Ramaswamy

The picture was different in a Fox News poll conducted August 6-10 among 1,008 registered voters. Ramaswamy led Acton 50% to 48% in that survey — figures within the poll’s 3-point margin of error. The poll represented a shift from June, when Acton held a 50-49 advantage over Ramaswamy. The same poll showed Ramaswamy with a 46% favorable rating and 44% unfavorable rating, while Acton was at 43% favorable and 47% unfavorable.

Ohio becomes key target for Democrats

Spelling more bad news for the GOP, The Cook Political Report shifted the rating for the Ohio gubernatorial race from “lean” Republican to a toss-up in July. Cook rates the Senate race between Republican Jon Husted and Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown as a toss-up as well. While Ohio backed Donald Trump in three consecutive presidential elections, Democrats view both the open governor’s contest and the Senate race as pickup opportunities in November. 

Craig Agranoff, a political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek, “A drop for Ramaswamy on Kalshi is worth watching because Ohio should be friendly terrain for a Republican. When traders put Acton near 57 to 59 percent, they are pricing in a midterm environment that is tougher for the party in power, plus questions about Ramaswamy’s personal standing with independents.” Agranoff added that the slip in prediction markets is “concerning as a signal, not as a verdict.”