Republican former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya locked in close race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat with Democrat Peggy Flanagan, new poll shows
Republican former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya is within striking distance of Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota’s open Senate race, according to a new poll. Flanagan leads Tafoya 44% to 42% among likely voters, putting the candidates within the survey’s 3-point margin of error. The contest is for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Tina Smith and is shaping up to be a competitive race despite Minnesota’s Democratic voting history.
Poll shows narrow Peggy Flanagan advantage
The TIPP/League of American Workers survey was conducted August 31 through September 2 among 1,201 likely voters and found 4% backing other candidates, 2% choosing someone else and 8% undecided. Among 1,494 registered voters, however, Flanagan led Tafoya 40% to 38%, with the survey carrying a 2.7-point margin of error. The newer result is closer than an August SurveyUSA poll, which showed Flanagan ahead 46% to 41% among likely voters.
The League of American Workers, which commissioned the poll, is a conservative advocacy organization led by former Donald Trump adviser Steve Cortes, although it is not formally affiliated with the Republican Party.
Peggy Flanagan won progressive-backed primary
Flanagan entered the general election after defeating Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in the August 11 primary with support from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ilhan Omar, a victory that represented a win for the party’s more progressive wing.
Tafoya, a longtime NFL sideline reporter, won the Republican nomination and is relying on her name recognition and outsider profile as Republicans seek gains in Minnesota.
Both candidates have distinct voter bases
The poll found Flanagan leading among Gen Z and Millennials, women, Black voters and Hispanic voters, while Tafoya had stronger support among voters 45 and older, along with men and white voters. Both candidates received 37% among independents.
Flanagan’s favorability stood at 39%, compared with 34% unfavorable and 28% with no opinion. Tafoya had a 34% favorable rating, with 30% unfavorable and 36% with no opinion. The Cook Political Report rates the race as likely Democratic, while prediction markets heavily favor Flanagan.
Campaigns trade blows as midterms draw near
Flanagan spokesperson Lexi Byler told Newsweek, “Michele Tafoya would be nothing but a loyal soldier to Donald Trump. She supports his ICE and mass deportation agenda that led to two Minnesotans being killed, defended January 6 rioters who assaulted police officers and tried to overturn a free and fair election, and supports Trump’s reckless tariffs that are hammering farmers and driving up prices for everyone. Tafoya even told Minnesotans to just ‘keep a stiff upper lip’ with the higher prices due to Trump’s illegal war in Iran and praised the One Big, Beautiful Bill that is ripping health care away from hundreds of thousands of Minnesotans.”
“Michele Tafoya is fighting for what Trump wants, Peggy Flanagan is fighting for what working families need – Minnesotans know that and it’s why they will choose Peggy Flanagan in November,” Byler added.
Tafoya responded to the recent poll on X, writing, “Our race is in play! Minnesotans are fed up with billions in taxpayer dollars being stolen while the people in charge refuse to take responsibility. Peggy Flanagan is the sitting lieutenant governor while criminals were stealing billions from Minnesota taxpayers. She doesn’t get to walk away from that record. Minnesotans deserve accountability. They deserve leadership. And they deserve better. This race is wide open. Let’s win it!”