UFC Shanghai continues on the prelims with a fight between Tsuruya and Borjas. Check out our UFC odds series for our Tsuruya-Borjas prediction.
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UFC Shanghai: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong continues on the prelims with a fight between Rei Tsuruya and Kevin Borjas in the flyweight division. Check out our UFC Shanghai odds series for our Tsuruya-Borjas prediction and pick.
Rei Tsuruya (11-1) bounced back from his lone UFC loss, a decision to Joshua Van in March 2025, by submitting Luis Gurule via neck crank in the first round this past May, extending his overall win streak to 11, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Kevin Borjas.
Kevin Borjas (11-5) enters this fight looking to snap a skid after dropping a unanimous decision to Su Mudaerji at UFC Fight Night 257 in August 2025, a loss that followed a bounce-back unanimous decision win over Ronaldo Rodriguez that March, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Rei Tsuruya.
UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Shanghai Odds: Rei Tsuruya-Kevin Borjas Odds
Rei Tsuruya: -700
Kevin Borjas: +500
Over 2.5 rounds: +114
Under 2.5 rounds: -145
Why Rei Tsuruya Will Win
Rei Tsuruya brings an 11-1 record and a far more dependable grappling base into his flyweight matchup with Kevin Borjas, whose 11-5 résumé includes two UFC stoppage losses. Tsuruya’s five-plus takedowns per three rounds make him a difficult stylistic assignment for a fighter most comfortable trading at range.
Borjas owns legitimate knockout power, with eight career KO/TKO wins, but he has also been controlled in decision losses and stopped by strikes in the UFC. That volatility gives Tsuruya a clear incentive to avoid extended pocket exchanges and make this a wrestling-first fight.
Tsuruya’s most recent performance showed precisely what makes him dangerous: he submitted Luis Gurule with a first-round rear-naked choke. He does not simply use takedowns to bank minutes; he transitions quickly toward the back and actively hunts submissions once opponents begin defending scrambles.
Borjas rebounded from a February knockout loss to beat Andre Lima by unanimous decision in June, so he arrives with confidence and improved urgency. Still, defeating a mobile striker is very different from deterring a relentless chain wrestler with Tsuruya’s positional discipline.
The Japanese contender should use feints to draw Borjas forward, level-change under the counters, and repeatedly force him to work from the fence. Over three rounds, that accumulated grappling pressure should drain Borjas’ explosiveness and limit his knockout opportunities.
Expect Tsuruya to win the positional battle early, threaten the neck during transitions, and either secure a late submission or take a clear unanimous decision. His cleaner path to victory, superior control, and proven finishing threat make Rei the more reliable pick in Shanghai.
WhyKevin Borjas Will Win
Kevin Borjas brings genuine UFC battle scars into this fight, having already tested himself against the level of competition the promotion throws at him, including a hard-fought decision loss to Su Mudaerji. That kind of experience against live UFC-caliber opposition simply can’t be replicated in lower-tier promotions.
Rei Tsuruya’s 11-fight winning streak looks dominant on paper, but much of it was built outside the UFC’s toughest weight-class gauntlet, and his lone loss came against a top-tier prospect in Joshua Van. That result shows real vulnerability when facing a live look who won’t be intimidated by reputation.
Borjas has already shown he can respond to adversity, bouncing back from setbacks with a clean decision win over Ronaldo Rodriguez, proving he doesn’t crumble after a tough loss. That resilience matters against a hyped streak fighter who has rarely had to dig deep from behind.
Tsuruya’s aggressive finishing style, while effective against lesser competition, could also open him up to counters from a durable veteran like Borjas who has weathered five career losses without folding.
If Borjas can use his UFC-level experience to survive Tsuruya’s early pressure, stay composed, and pick his counters, his toughness and championship rounds experience could be enough to snap the streak and hand Tsuruya his second career loss.
Final Rei Tsuruya-Kevin Borjas Prediction & Pick
Rei should use his speed and scrambling instincts to make Borjas react early, disguising level changes behind sharp movement and controlled pressure throughout the opening round.
Borjas is dangerous when exchanges become wild, but Rei’s patience should prevent those moments while steadily forcing clinches, trips, and difficult defensive grappling sequences against the fence.
Once Rei establishes top position, his positional discipline can drain Borjas’ energy and create the small openings needed to advance toward the back or mount.
Look for Borjas to survive the initial grappling waves with toughness, yet give up increasingly dangerous positions as Rei chains attacks together and denies him space to reset.
The decisive moment should arrive after Rei uses ground-and-pound to force a scramble, then capitalizes on Borjas exposing his neck during a desperate attempt to stand.
Rei locks up the submission, earns the tap, and delivers an impressive statement victory that highlights both his composure and his rapidly developing finishing instincts.
Final Rei Tsuruya-Kevin Borjas Prediction & Pick: Rei Tsuruya (-700); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-145)
UFC Shanghai: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong continues on the prelims with a fight between Rei Tsuruya and Kevin Borjas in the flyweight division. Check out our UFC Shanghai odds series for our Tsuruya-Borjas prediction and pick.