Several states have been wrestling with mid-decade redistricting this year—trying to nudge their congressional maps to favor their party—after President Trump began last summer pressing Republican-led states to add more GOP-friendly districts. The push, unusual in timing and politically loaded, is aimed at keeping the party’s razor-thin House edge in next year’s midterm elections.
Indiana was first to reject a new map proposed by GOP legislators that would have made all nine of the state’s congressional districts favorable to Republicans. In Maryland, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore’s plan to redraw the map to edge out Maryland’s lone GOP member of Congress failed after the legislative session ended on April 14, with the Democratic-led state Senate leaving the redistricting bill in a committee. Then Texas kicked things off in August, when Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation to redraw districts and create five GOP-friendly seats. California followed, with Gov. Gavin Newsom launching an effort to redraw the state’s map to help Democrats; in November, voters approved the plan by a 29-point margin.
In Missouri, lawmakers redrew the map in September to squeeze Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver from his Kansas City district. A month later, North Carolina Republicans redrew the 1st Congressional District, held by a Democrat, to make it more favorable to conservatives. But Indiana’s state Senate rejected redistricting on Dec. 11 in a 31-19 vote despite the GOP’s 40-10 advantage in the chamber. Ahead of that vote, Indiana state police said they had received “numerous” bomb threats and swatting hoaxes against state senators—people were worried in a very physical, immediate way, and you could practically feel that tension in the hallways.
Utah’s story is slightly different, even if the goal looks similar on paper. The state reworked its map after a judge ruled the existing districts violated restrictions on gerrymandering. All four Utah House districts are currently represented by Republicans, but in November a judge threw out the GOP-controlled legislature’s map and ordered one that will create a Democratic-leaning district in Salt Lake City. This mid-decade push comes after the usual cycle—redistricting every 10 years after the U.S. Census—was disrupted by political urgency. Republicans, seeking to maintain or expand their razor-thin majority in Congress for the 2026 midterm elections, are betting that the map can help hold the line.
Still, nobody can pretend the outcome is automatic. “Computers and technology do give us a lot more ability to to make predictive statements about outcomes, but we’re doing it — I think it’s fair to say — in a very volatile environment politically, where things that we have seen as trends are sort of being turned on their heads,” Kareem Crayton, vice president of the Washington, D.C.-based Brennan Center for Justice, said. He warned against assuming turnout patterns for a president automatically translate into support for members of Congress—especially for a new candidate in a district that hasn’t been created before. That idea kind of lingers, because it also sounds like a quiet admission: maps may steer voters, but they don’t control them.
The likely map effects vary sharply by state. Texas has 38 congressional seats—25 held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats. Misryoum newsroom reporting indicates Republicans invested heavily in the Rio Grande Valley, once a Democratic stronghold, and in 2024 two of the three Rio Grande Valley House seats voted for Trump, though their Democratic representatives were reelected. The proposed Texas maps are designed to increase those gains and box out the two Democrats. They would
reshape Democratic Rep. Al Green’s Houston district from 72% Democratic to 40% Democratic, and shift Rep. Julie Johnson’s Dallas-area district from 62% to 41% Democratic. Rep. Marc Veasey’s district would remain a Democratic stronghold, but he would no longer live in the district. Liberal Austin would also be dissolved into neighboring districts—Rep. Lloyd Doggett said in August he would not seek reelection if the maps are upheld by the courts, avoiding a primary with Rep.
Greg Casar. Texas courts briefly blocked the maps on Nov. 18, but Misryoum newsroom reporting also states Abbott appealed and the U.S. Supreme Court restored the map passed this summer.
California, with 52 House representatives—nine Republicans and 43 Democrats—would also see targeted adjustments. Under the proposed maps, GOP Rep. David Valadao’s 22nd District would move from 47% Democratic in 2024 to 49% Democratic, while GOP Rep. Darrell Issa’s 48th District near San Diego would change from 42% to 52% Democratic. In Southern California, Rep. Ken Calvert’s 41st District in Riverside would shift from 47% Democratic in 2024 to 57% Democratic. In Northern California, GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s District 1 would shift further south toward Marin County, while GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley’s district snakes along the California-Nevada border through Death Valley would move toward heavily Democratic Sacramento. Kiley’s district would go from 48% Democratic in 2024 to 55% Democratic, and he has been outspoken about redistricting, even introducing legislation in the House to ban mid-decade redistricting.
Missouri’s map would take Cleaver’s district from 62% Democratic to 41% Democratic. The neighboring 4th and 6th Districts would become slightly bluer—39% and 36% Democratic—but still safely Republican. By expanding the 2nd District south and west, GOP Rep. Ann Wagner’s district would go from 46% Democratic in 2024 to 44%. In the meantime, opponents submitted more than 300,000 signatures in early December to force a ballot measure, and a judge is reviewing whether the signatures are valid.
In North Carolina, where 10 of 14 congressional seats are held by Republicans but the state is closer to a 50/50 split at the presidential level, Republicans are targeting one seat. Misryoum newsroom reporting indicates Rep. Don Davis’ 1st Congressional District would become more conservative as its boundaries move further south into the current 3rd District, changing the makeup from 48% Democratic to 44% Democratic. And Utah—where there are no Democrats among the four members of its congressional delegation—would create a new Salt Lake City district that is 62% Democratic, based on 2024 presidential results.
Indiana’s failed effort remains one of the starkest reminders of the limits of pressure politics. Lawmakers initially resisted Trump administration pressure, then reversed course and reconvened after a special session. On Dec. 1, Indiana House Republicans unveiled a map that significantly changes District 1 and District 7, spreading District 1’s voters through Districts 2 and 4 and splitting District 7—once backed Harris with 71% of its vote—into several Republican districts. Even with Republicans’ 40-10 advantage in the state Senate, the bill failed 31-19, and Bray said after the vote that it’s time to turn the page. Trump has vowed to primary Republicans who voted against the measure—something that, depending on how the political winds shift, could end up shaping turnout more than the lines themselves. Actually, or maybe not, because that’s the problem with predicting it too neatly.
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