Washington — Over a third of the Senate’s seats are up for election in 2026, and until recently, Republicans seemed exceedingly confident about holding power after this fall’s midterms. The math is tough, though: Democrats are defending a lot less open ground than Republicans, while Republicans are defending more seats—often in places President Trump won by comfortable margins.
Still, Democrats are making the case that this cycle won’t be the easy sweep Republicans are expecting. The unpopular war with Iran and stubborn affordability issues have become talking points that are landing with enough voters to create real openings. Misryoum newsroom reported that in CBS polling released last month, more voters said they’d prefer to see Democrats control Congress than Republicans.
Political wisdom holds that the party controlling the White House typically loses seats in the House in the midterm elections. So Republicans are pushing hard to keep their majority of 53 in the upper chamber—because losing control there would mean the worst of both worlds: the possibility Democrats could win majorities in both houses of Congress. Democrats, meanwhile, must net four more seats to take the majority.
On the ground, the “control of the Senate” question is less one single story and more a stack of races that, collectively, could redraw the map. Maine is one of them. The state’s contest pits Gov. against a progressive oyster farmer in the Democratic primary as Democrats aim to unseat Susan Collins. Collins is fighting to hold onto her seat in the Senate, and she’s no stranger to tough challenges—she’s fended off several Democratic efforts before. Whether she can prevail in a state that Kamala Harris won by almost seven points in 2024 remains to be seen. Mills and veteran oyster farmer Graham Platner are vying for the Democratic nomination, set for June 9.
It’s an unusual campaign for a Senate race, and it shows in the texture of how people talk about it. In one quick moment outside a local event, the air carried that briny, cold-water smell you only notice near docks—then the conversation slid right back to turnout math and whether Platner’s anti-establishment pitch can travel from primary voters to the general electorate. Platner, 41, has billed himself as an anti-establishment candidate and has secured backing
from prominent progressives, including Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Misryoum newsroom reported that recent polls have shown Platner leading Mills by significant margins. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, and Misryoum editorial desk noted that Collins, chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, remains influential and unusually independent-minded for the Republican conference—though she’s been a target of criticism from President Trump. Senate GOP leaders have stood
behind her, and the Senate Leadership Fund announced an investment of $42 million in advertising reservations in the race.
Michigan’s race is also already crowded and contentious. Sen. Gary Peters’ decision not to seek reelection opened a competitive Democratic primary in the Great Lakes State, featuring Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Michigan health official Abdul El-Sayed. Misryoum newsroom reported the intraparty fighting has turned ugly in recent months, with the U.S. relationship with Israel and the war in Gaza central to the campaign’s tone. The primary is set for Aug. 4. On the Republican side, former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers is pursuing another Senate bid after losing to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in the last election. The Senate Leadership Fund announced a $45 million investment in the race, and with no incumbent advantage, and Michigan’s pattern of swinging between parties in presidential elections, the Cook Political Report rates Michigan as a toss-up.
Ohio, meanwhile, is where comeback energy has a history of sticking—at least sometimes. Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to return to the Senate, running for Vance’s former seat. Brown lost his seat in 2024 to GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno, and while President Trump won Ohio that year by more than 10 percentage points, Brown’s defeat came by less than four points. Democrats see an opening for a pick-up, especially with Brown’s working-class brand.
Sen. John Husted is defending the seat after being appointed to fill the vacancy left by Vice President JD Vance last year. Misryoum newsroom reported that Ohio’s 2024 Senate race was the most expensive of the cycle, and this time around the contest is shaping up to be costly too—the Senate Leadership Fund’s largest ad reservation is $79 million. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating from leaning Republican to a toss-up in April.
The list of high-leverage races doesn’t stop there. Alaska features GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan defending against former Rep. Mary Peltola, who became the first Democrat to represent the state in 50 years. Georgia has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff trying to win reelection in a state Trump won in 2024, against the backdrop of a formidable fundraising push and a messy GOP primary. New Hampshire is in play after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen opted not to seek
reelection, setting up an open-seat fight featuring GOP former senators John Sununu and Scott Brown, and a Senate Leadership Fund-backed contest that’s rated leaning Democrat. North Carolina is another spot where Democrats are betting on former Gov. Roy Cooper; Iowa is watching for longshot energy after Joni Ernst’s retirement; Nebraska tests an independent repeat bid from Dan Osborn; Texas has a bitter GOP primary heading toward a runoff; and Minnesota is balancing a Democratic nomination
fight around shootings in Minneapolis tied to an immigration crackdown.
All of it circles the same question: can Democrats net four more seats, or do Republicans hold their 53-seat ceiling? The answers likely won’t come all at once, and in more than one state, the path to control may hinge on outcomes that feel surprisingly close until they suddenly aren’t.
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