NFL Week 2 overreactions
Sam Cardona-Norberg breaks down the biggest storylines from NFL Week 2.
Sports Seriously
“I don’t believe in the no-win scenario.”
It was a philosophy espoused by “Star Trek” Admiral James T. Kirk – and it worked almost flawlessly for the commander of the Enterprise … until he was killed while valiantly saving the galaxy and Captain Jean-Luc Picard, a lesser Starfleet officer. (Sorry, I digress and spoil.)
But a no-win scenario is − literally − also what a quarter of the NFL is facing entering Week 3 of the 2026 season, eight teams off to the dreaded 0-2 start. And while must-win scenarios have become cliché in the sports world, it’s a borderline reality for these clubs.
“I’m not deterred,” Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh, known as “Captain Comeback” during his playing days, if not Captain Kirk, said in the aftermath of his team’s stunning stumble out of the gate.
“This is a team that has the competitiveness. We’ve got the fight, we’ve got the guys, we’ve got the coaches. We just got to find our way. Find a way.”
But finding a way out of this often catastrophic hole has always been an elusive endeavor. Since the start of the 2020 season, when the league’s playoff field expanded from 12 to 14 entries, only eight of the 51 clubs that started 0-2 – a mere 16% – overcame their early troubles to reach postseason. Since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, only three teams have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy after encountering the 0-2 hurdle, none since the 2007 New York Giants. (The 1993 Dallas Cowboys and 2001 New England Patriots, teams stocked with eventual Hall of Famers, are the others.)
So, even if no one is facing a truly legitimate must-win proposition this weekend, it’s most definitely go time for the winless lot – and, let’s not forget, three (Carolina, Chicago and Houston) surmounted those circumstances last season with the Bears and Texans finishing just two wins shy of reaching Super Bowl 60.
Given that context, let’s rank all of this year’s scuffling squads by their postseason viability from least likely to most:
Little need to linger here. Ever since rookie GM Jon-Eric Sullivan opted to reset his roster to the tune of a dead money salary cap hit north of $180 million – more than half of that tied to former QB Tua Tagovailoa’s release in March – it’s been clear that the Fins weren’t going to be relevant in 2026, content to play a much longer game. (More than half of the players on the 53-man roster have two or fewer seasons of NFL experience, and fifth-year QB Malik Willis is a starter for the first time.) The play on the field has been predictably reflective so far, the Dolphins outscored 62-26 collectively, and that includes a beatdown from the Las Vegas Raiders. Moving on.
7. Washington Commanders
With two new coordinators, neither who’d ever held the post in the NFL, and an influx of players, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, there were bound to be some transitional growing pains in the nation’s capital. Still, the Commanders are only one season removed from reaching the NFC title game, and a sense of optimism persisted amid the healthy return of third-year QB Jayden Daniels … until he injured his left elbow – again – in Sunday’s blowout loss at Dallas, already Washington’s second in the division. The 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year is most definitely out for Week 3 against Seattle, and coach Dan Quinn doesn’t want to make the same mistake he did last year, when his franchise player returned to action too quickly and was reinjured. Nevertheless, Washington was 3-7 without Daniels in 2025 and, already stuck in quicksand, the Commanders can only hope he won’t be absent for so much of this season.
It’s been a rough beginning to the Robert Saleh era, the new-look − but ice cold − Titans dropping their first two games in scorching Nashville. There are quite a few new and young players here, too, all of them still trying to jell under a new staff – and seemingly to better results in a much more competitive showing against Philadelphia last weekend. But six of the next nine games for an offense that has the fewest first downs in the league will be on the road, and second-year QB Cam Ward is not off to an especially encouraging start under new OC Brian Daboll. It does help that Tennessee plays in a division where three of the teams are winless, and the outlying Jacksonville Jaguars only have a one-game lead over the rest of the field.
Like the Titans, they have the benefit of AFC South membership. Like the Titans, they got smoked at home in their opener but looked far friskier in Week 2, the Colts narrowly losing in overtime at Kansas City. But how much can you trust a team that invested so heavily this offseason in injured mid-tier players like QB Daniel Jones and WR Alec Pierce, the latter already back on the shelf for the foreseeable future after reaggravating a heel injury. And a defense that’s surrendered the most points and yards in the league barely looks functional. It sure seems like GM Ballard and HC Shane Steichen are jockeying for their professional lives, so maybe a sense of desperation will catalyze a hot streak … and maybe Ballard will make more shortsighted, win-now rosters moves in a bid to achieve exactly that.
4. Los Angeles Chargers
They’ve got a championship-caliber coach (Harbaugh). They’ve got a Pro Bowl quarterback with a skill set rivaling any of his peers league-wide (Justin Herbert). They’ve got a new offensive coordinator with a reputation for lighting up the scoreboard (Mike McDaniel). There are star players up and down the roster. Yet the Bolts somehow dropped their first two games, both at home, to the lightly regarded Cardinals and Raiders – putting Harbaugh into the first 0-2 deficit of his distinguished coaching career. What’s ahead may be even more ominous given the Chargers live in the unforgiving AFC West, which is apparently even more imposing given Las Vegas is no longer an automatic win. More immediately, the Chargers’ next five road games are at Buffalo, Seattle, Kansas City, against the cross-town Rams and at Baltimore – with visits from the Broncos and Texans sprinkled into that gauntlet. Harbaugh has led this organization to 11 wins and a wild-card berth in each of his first two years in L.A., and Herbert is simply too sublimely talented to discount … but everything else points to counting these Chargers out.
3. Atlanta Falcons
No doubt there’s All-Pro-caliber talent on this roster, particularly on the offensive side. The Dirty Birds are also under new management, haven’t had their top two quarterbacks available in the first two weeks, already have seven players on injured reserve – including OLB Jalon Walker and CB A.J. Terrell – and won’t have suspended pass rusher James Pearce Jr. back until midseason. Phew. But things could be looking up against the underpowered Packers on Thursday night, when QB Michael Penix Jr. is set to make his season debut and could potentially unlock first-year coach Kevin Stefanski’s attack. And remember, since the start of the 2022 season, the NFC South has required more than nine wins from its champion only once.
The lone exception to the NFC South’s ongoing stretch of mediocrity was the 2024 Bucs, who were a not-so-dominant 10-7 under QB Baker Mayfield. But Tampa Bay has won every NFC South title since the start of the 2021 campaign save last year, when they were denied by a tiebreaker. Now 0-2 for the first time since 2014, the Bucs have put fairly uninspiring football on film during the past two weeks after getting swept by the league’s Ohio contingent. However their track record in the historically underwhelming division suggests the ever-scrappy Mayfield and his oft-overlooked mates should not be written off – particularly given, like Atlanta, they’re currently only a game back of the Saints and Panthers.
1. Houston Texans
No wins, no problem? This is Houston’s third 0-2 start in the Texans’ four years under coach DeMeco Ryans and QB C.J. Stroud – and they actually dropped their first three contests in 2025. However they haven’t failed to make the playoffs yet under the duo, winning 10 games in a row at one point last season before succumbing to New England in the divisional round of the playoffs. Spotting the field two weeks obviously isn’t the optimal to start a season for the only franchise in the league that’s never played in a conference title game but, like the Colts and Titans, Houston also has the advantage of competing in the still wide-open AFC South. Getting a daunting defense dialed in, more consistency from Stroud and injured WR Nico Collins (hamstring) back into the lineup could go a long way toward putting this team on another lengthy heater. That could begin Sunday at Indianapolis, in a de facto elimination game for the Colts and Texans.
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