Raman narrows – As Los Angeles continues counting mail-in votes, City Councilmember Nithya Raman has cut Spencer Pratt’s lead to a single percentage point—setting up a tighter path to the Nov. 3 runoff against Mayor Karen Bass.
For the third straight update, the numbers kept moving—quietly, but with enough force to change what people thought they were watching in Los Angeles’s mayoral race.
On Saturday. City Councilmember Nithya Raman pulled further ahead of reality television personality Spencer Pratt. shrinking his lead to just a single percentage point. Pratt stood at just over 27% of the vote. while Raman rose to slightly over 26%. according to results released by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder. Pratt still led by 7,494 votes, but the momentum leaned toward Raman.
“You’ve seen Nithya Raman catching up on every update and the last two in particular she’s accelerated. ” said Paul Mitchell. vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data Inc. He added that Raman’s rate of gains means she could catch up unless Pratt begins receiving ballots that break more favorably for him “either geographically or demographically.”.
A consultant not tied to the race painted the opposite picture—one that left little room for suspense. Democratic consultant Michael Trujillo said the trend suggested Raman was on track to surpass Pratt as more votes are counted. “I think it’s over,” Trujillo said. “It appears Nithya will be in the runoff. Pratt doesn’t appear to be growing much more.”.
The stakes are immediate. The second-place finisher in the mayoral primary will face Mayor Karen Bass in a Nov. 3 runoff. On election night Tuesday, the Associated Press determined that Bass had secured enough votes to qualify for the runoff. Pratt has held second place since then, while Raman has gradually eroded the gap as mail-in ballots have been tabulated.
The movement has been visible in the week’s shifting tallies. An updated vote count released Thursday showed Pratt with 29% and Raman with 23%. By Friday’s update, Raman’s share had risen to 25% while Pratt’s dropped to 28%, leaving a 3 percentage point gap.
In the most recent batch of mail-in ballots counted, Raman received 23,514 votes while Pratt gained 10,336.
Election analysts had expected Raman to gain ground as mail-in ballots were counted. pointing to patterns tied to timing and voter preference. Many left-of-center voters. described as Raman’s base. were believed to hold onto their mail-in ballots until later—waiting as they chose between Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Analysts also said younger, more progressive voters tend to hold onto their ballots longer.
The race itself is nonpartisan, but the political reality around it has been hard to ignore. Pratt is a Republican in a city dominated by Democratic voters and Democratic elected officials.
Poll results earlier in the campaign underscored the uncertainty. A poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. co-sponsored by The Times. had Pratt in third place behind Bass and Raman. That poll of 1. 351 likely voters. conducted May 19-24. found Bass at 26%. Raman at 25%. and Pratt at 22%. with a 3% margin of error.
Los Angeles voters have learned to expect late swings. In the 2022 mayoral primary, real estate developer Rick Caruso led for about a week before Bass pulled ahead.
What separates this round is where the vote has been coming from. A Times analysis of precinct-level returns provided by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder on Wednesday—when an estimated 62% of the projected vote had been counted—found Pratt strong in many of the same neighborhoods that supported Caruso. Raman, by contrast, made inroads in progressive areas that had been dominated by Bass four years ago.
Pratt’s support was strongest in Pacific Palisades, where his home burned in the January 2025 fire, and also on the Westside. He also performed well in San Fernando Valley communities including Encino, Woodland Hills, Chatsworth, and Sunland-Tujunga.
Raman dominated precincts known for progressive politics, especially those with younger people in renter-heavy neighborhoods stretching from Hollywood to Highland Park, including her home base of Silver Lake.
Even as the race tightens, the calendar is still moving. Mail-in ballots with an election day postmark will continue to be accepted by county election officials through Tuesday.
Los Angeles mayoral race Nithya Raman Spencer Pratt Karen Bass runoff mail-in ballots Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder Political Data Inc UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies
So wait they’re counting more ballots or just making it up as they go?
I saw somewhere that Pratt was already basically done, but now it’s like Raman is catching him? LA elections always feel like a soap opera. Why does it take forever.
Just based on the numbers they said, Pratt “doesn’t appear to be growing” so I guess that means Raman will win outright? Also 1 percentage point sounds tiny but 7,494 votes is still a lot… I’m confused.
If it’s all mail-in ballots then it’s probably older people voting for Raman or something, idk. The article says it could swing geographically or demographically which sounds like an excuse. Trujillo saying “I think it’s over” makes it sound like he’s just calling the outcome now. Either way, Bass better watch her back for the runoff.