Democrats advance – California Democrats say they’ve kept the promise of Proposition 50 alive after last week’s primary by advancing candidates to November runoffs in all five Republican-held House districts reshaped by the measure. With momentum building—and Republican hope dent
In California’s Central Valley, Randy Villegas walked into the post-primary moment with a simple message: the path to taking back the House runs through the region.
After Villegas bested his Democratic challenger, he advanced in the redrawn 22nd Congressional District to face Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) in November. Villegas. a progressive college professor. told The Times that Democrats are “united in our fight to flip this seat and to take back the House for Democrats here in ‘26. ” adding. “We know the path to taking back the House runs through the Central Valley.”.
His opponent’s campaign framed it differently—less about ideology and more about the kind of representation he says he delivers. Robert Jones. a Valadao campaign strategist. said Valadao “is always humbled to receive the support of Democrats. independents and Republicans across the Central Valley” and called his “brand of independent. bipartisan leadership… all too rare in Congress and California.” Jones added that they “look forward to a campaign that puts the Central Valley ahead of any political party and wins again in November.”.
Across California. the numbers coming out of the primary—while not final—were giving Democrats something they have been working to preserve since Proposition 50 redrew the map: a set of winnable. high-stakes general elections in districts that last year were targeted by the redistricting measure. The Democratic effort now hinges on November runoffs in five congressional districts that had been in Republican hands.
In the redrawn 40th Congressional District. the politics may stay red on paper even as a single seat gets tested twice. Incumbent Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills) were driven to run against each other for the new district after it was drawn to include portions of both of their current districts. Both advanced to November, but only one will prevail.
Experts said a third incumbent could also be in jeopardy: Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-Rocklin). Kiley left the Republican Party and switched districts as a result of Proposition 50. and he advanced in the redrawn 6th Congressional District in the Sacramento suburbs to face former Democratic state Sen. Richard Pan in November. As of Thursday. Kiley and the leading Republican candidate together had received well under half the vote. while Pan and four other Democratic candidates had collectively won well over half the vote.
Pan. in a social media post Wednesday. cheered his race being added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program highlighting winnable seats. He said his race is “one of the top chances to flip a House seat and take back the majority.” Kiley did not respond to a request for comment. but he wrote on X that the November race between him and Pan “will be a choice between the extreme partisan policies that have made California the most unaffordable state in the country. and the independent leadership that allows our local communities to thrive in spite of the state’s failures.”.
The primary tallies as of Thursday are not final, and they don’t necessarily map cleanly onto November head-to-head contests. Voting in a primary doesn’t automatically predict how people will split their support in the general election—experts warned that general-election voters can choose across party lines even after staying within one party’s field in the primary.
Still, the early momentum is feeding Democratic confidence in a year when economic pressure is weighing on voters. With high gas prices and other economic headwinds. the electorate appears to be shifting against the president’s party. said Mike Madrid. a Republican political consultant in the state. “We’re in an anti-Republican moment,” Madrid said. “Is there time to turn it around?. I guess. But there’s also time for it to get worse — and that’s the way it seems to be heading.”.
Bob Shrum. a longtime Democratic strategist and director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future. argued that November turnout history could work in Democrats’ favor even more than the primary results suggest. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats won all five targeted seats. and he pointed to the higher turnout Democrats typically see in general elections. “I would not be surprised if Democrats won all five targeted seats. and the primary certainly increases the possibility that happens when you look at the results. ” Shrum said. “Maybe one of these places will surprise us. but right now. just looking at the numbers. I don’t think Republicans are in good shape.”.
The man who helped build Proposition 50’s case, Gov. Gavin Newsom, backed that direction publicly. In a statement to The Times. Newsom said. “Democrats will take back the House. and Prop 50 will be a big part of that story.” He also said Trump’s repeated claims without evidence that Democrats rigged the election in California stem from Trump knowing “Republicans are headed for a midterm shellacking.”.
Even where Republicans have recently tried to find opening space, the map’s reshuffling has created new fault lines. In Northern California’s redrawn 1st Congressional District, Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale) died in January. The seat was filled by Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher. who won a special election using the old district lines for the remainder of LaMalfa’s term. But in the primary for the next full term under the newly drawn district, state Sen. Mike McGuire and other Democrats collectively outperformed Gallagher by a substantial margin as of Thursday. giving McGuire the momentum heading into the November runoff with Gallagher.
In the redrawn 41st Congressional District—covering parts of Los Angeles and Riverside counties—Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Whittier) and Republican Mitch Clemmons advanced. As of Thursday, Sánchez and her fellow Democratic candidates had collectively outperformed Clemmons by a wide margin.
And in the redrawn 48th Congressional District, which spans parts of San Diego and Riverside counties, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall) retired rather than run for reelection. Moderate Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond advanced alongside Democratic San Diego Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert. As of Thursday. Von Wilpert and other Democrats in the race collectively outpaced Desmond and the other Republican in the race.
Republicans had banked on two specific signs of resilience—one involving Valadao, and another involving Kiley. But experts said neither race went the way GOP leaders had hoped, and both incumbents face a tough road ahead.
For Valadao. Republicans long held hope he could hold on to his San Joaquin Valley district and spoil Democratic plans for a flip. For Kiley. early results had seemed to buoy the idea that voters might stick with the conservative incumbent even after he left the Republican Party to run as an independent in a district designed to favor a Democrat. Experts said that dynamic now forces Kiley into a more complicated coalition.
Madrid described the challenge as threefold. “Having abandoned the Republican Party to run as an independent in a district that was designed to favor a Democrat. Kiley ‘now has to work all three lanes. ’” Madrid said. “He has to get a consolidation of the Republican vote. he has to communicate directly to independents. and he’s going to have to get crossover Democrats.”.
Madrid added that it would be extremely difficult to do all of it at once. Any movement Kiley makes back toward Trump—aimed at wooing Republican voters—risks alienating moderate voters needed to win, Madrid said.
Shrum put more of the blame on Trump’s broader political pressure campaign. He referenced Trump calling on Texas Republicans to redistrict in favor of Republicans. and said. “These California Republicans are paying the price for Trump starting this mess in Texas.” He added. “Kiley in his old district probably would have been easily reelected. This new district is a whole different story.”.
Shrum was less optimistic about Valadao. despite the political argument GOP leaders have leaned on—specifically. that Villegas is too progressive for the Central Valley. Shrum said he doubts the message will land with enough voters to sway the race toward Valadao. particularly because the concerns voters are focused on include cost of living and the war.
Republicans also have tried to define the choice in sharp terms. In a recent statement. Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said: “Randy Villegas endorses every far-left policy that would destroy any hope for Central Valley residents looking for relief from Gavin Newsom’s high-tax. high-fraud system.”.
Madrid said he had even less confidence in a Valadao victory. In an environment where voters are frustrated with the economy and the president’s party, Madrid said, “in an environment like this, a tree stump could beat Valadao.”
Villegas, for his part, argued the primary results were rooted in the local reality of the district—not simply national partisan tensions. He said the district’s primary results were “rooted in the reality that Central Valley residents are fed up with David Valadao” and want a change.
For Democrats. the central takeaway is that Proposition 50’s promise is still moving in the direction they need: after last week’s primary. the party has advanced candidates to November runoffs in all five Republican-held congressional districts that the redistricting measure targeted. Whether that momentum translates into flipped seats in November will depend on how voters regroup—but the first signs have already reshaped the calendar. and the House map. before the general election even begins.
Proposition 50 California Democrats U.S. House redistricting November runoffs Randy Villegas David Valadao Kevin Kiley Richard Pan Ken Calvert Young Kim