progressives’ biggest – A slate of Democratic primaries across California, Iowa, and Montana next Tuesday will probe whether the progressive wing can turn enthusiasm into votes—especially in California’s Central Valley, where a Sanders- and Ocasio-Cortez-backed challenger faces a par
On the first Tuesday of September a different kind of countdown began inside the Democratic Party—less about who will lead in January and more about who can win in November.
Three primaries on Tuesday—California, Iowa and Montana—are set up as a high-stakes referendum on progressive power. The biggest fight is in California’s Central Valley. where the nominee could determine whether Democratic voters in more conservative or swing-leaning districts are ready to trust left-leaning candidates with seats currently held by Republicans.
The Central Valley contest pits Randy Villegas, a college professor endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), against state assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains. Bains is backed by the Democratic Party’s official campaign apparatus. and the strategy behind that backing is explicit: party leaders believe she would be better positioned to defeat Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) in November.
Villegas frames the choice as a struggle against party and corporate influence. “National Democrats and the Democratic establishment want somebody who’s going to be bending the knee to corporate interests. who’s going to be bending the knee to party leadership. and they know that I won’t do either of those things. ” he told HuffPost. Villegas also attacked Bains for accepting corporate PAC campaign contributions.
“We’re giving people something to believe in besides ‘We’re not Trump,’” Villegas said. “We can’t win this election by trading one corrupt representative who sold out our communities for another.”
Bains rejects the idea that her campaign is tainted or that she’s part of the Democratic establishment. A doctor who treats Medicaid patients, she said she does not view herself as someone who sells out communities. “I consider myself a physician that’s working to increase access to health care,” she said. “I consider myself a person that has always worked to protect vulnerable communities. My community knows very well the work that I’ve done here.”.
In California’s legislature, Bains is often described as the most moderate Democrat. She has even voted against Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to aggressively gerrymander the state in the party’s favor. Still, her political performance has been strong. She has outperformed Kamala Harris by more than 7 points in 2024. a number party strategists and general election planners won’t ignore as they look for the best route to Valadao.
If the Villegas-Bains race is the most bitter intra-party fight among the primaries playing out Tuesday. it’s also because the stakes stretch beyond the primary itself. The fight is likely to shift the terrain from “safely blue” Democratic seats—where electability arguments often take a back seat—to districts where beating Republicans in November could become the dominant question in voters’ minds.
Montana’s contest adds another kind of bet. In Montana, “smokejumper” Sam Forstag will face three other Democrats for a chance to run against a Republican in November for the seat being vacated by Rep. Ryan Zinke, a Republican who served in the first Trump administration.
Forstag’s profile is unusually public. His heroics as a union leader and firefighter—work that involves parachuting into burning forests—earned him a glowing profile in Esquire magazine. Ocasio-Cortez campaigned for Forstag in Missoula on Thursday and described learning about his former occupation on the trail.
“Sam is a smokejumper, and I had to learn what a smokejumper was,” Ocasio-Cortez said, to laughs in the crowd. “As it turns out, it’s one of the most dangerous jobs there is. I learned about how smokejumpers parachute out of small planes into wildfires that other firefighters can’t reach. and they work for days to keep the fire from reaching the next town.”.
A poll this month suggested most people in Montana had never even heard of Forstag. and he trailed in the race to Ryan Busse. a gun company executive turned gun-control activist and a former Democratic candidate for governor in the state. If AOC’s endorsement helps Forstag win. it could also force a broader electorate to learn what smokejumping entails—fast. and in public.
In Iowa, the progressive test is sharper on paper but less predictable in practice. State Rep. Josh Turek—emphasizing electability and citing his history of winning in a district that favors Trump—is seen as a strong favorite over more progressive State Sen. Zach Wahls. Wahls has the backing of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in the state’s Senate primary.
Yet Turek’s edge is less ideological than financial. The outside support for Turek has exceeded $10 million, a figure that can change how quickly messages spread and how long campaigns can keep competing for attention.
The Democratic primaries on Tuesday sit inside a broader push to see which wing of the party can translate momentum into governing outcomes—without losing the seats the party needs.
Other tests of progressive power are unfolding in places where the map could shift quickly. In California’s gubernatorial race. establishment-oriented Xavier Becerra is fighting to hold off billionaire Tom Steyer. who has staked out progressive positions on taxation. healthcare and energy issues. In New Jersey, Sanders-backed Adam Hamawy is trying to escape from a crowded field. And in New Mexico’s gubernatorial primary. progressive former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is favored to advance as she seeks to become the first Native American woman governor.
In the Central Valley, the Villegas-Bains fight has turned contentious, and it’s also where the progressive-versus-establishment tension is most vivid.
Bains has hammered Villegas for having served on a school board in a district that settled sexual abuse cases against a school staff member. even though he himself was not accused of any misconduct. Villegas counters by trying to shift the argument toward what he sees as the real dividing line: who bends to corporate power and who does not.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, meanwhile, believes Bains is the stronger general election candidate against Valadao. In an assessment delivered in a statement. DCCC spokeswoman Anna Elsasser told HuffPost: “They know she can defeat Valadao.” Elsasser pointed to Bains’ deep roots in the Central Valley and the fact that she already represents a portion of the district in the state legislature. The committee also flagged Republican meddling that it believes boosts Villegas instead of Bains.
“They know she can defeat Valadao,” Elsasser said, describing the logic behind the DCCC’s view.
Republicans are leaning into the progressive endorsement angle. The Congressional Leadership Fund. a House Republican campaign arm. has sent voters text messages purporting to warn them Villegas is “too extreme” for the district because he’s endorsed by Ocasio-Cortez. The campaign messages are likely to backfire inside Democratic primaries, where enthusiasm often follows endorsements.
Then there’s the issue that may matter most in a district where health care is not abstract.
Bains’ medical career plays to a weakness for Valadao. The district has the highest proportion of constituents on Medicaid of any in Congress. Valadao was one of several moderate House Republicans who warned party leaders last year not to use Medicaid cuts to help pay for tax cuts. only to vote for the legislation anyway.
Millions of people are projected to lose Medicaid coverage in the coming years as a result. For Bains, that history isn’t a debate topic—it’s the ignition point.
Bains said Valadao’s vote was what pushed her to declare her candidacy. “I saw him vote for it, and that day I decided I needed to do something,” she told HuffPost. “I created my career around taking care of vulnerable patients, and that day I saw it being ripped away.”
Democratic primaries California Iowa Montana progressive movement Randy Villegas Jasmeet Bains Bernie Sanders Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez David Valadao Josh Turek Zach Wahls Elizabeth Warren Sam Forstag Ryan Zinke Deb Haaland Xavier Becerra Tom Steyer Adam Hamawy