BETTING ODDS: Oliveira (-350); Elliott (+275)
Elliott (3-2 UFC) will seek to snap the first losing streak of his
career as he welcomes undefeated Brazilian knockout artist Oliveira
to the Octagon. “The Welsh Gangster” was off to a solid start
against Jonathan
Micallef at UFC 325 in January, getting the better of a fun
striking match before blundering into an ill-advised ground
sequence and getting choked all the way to sleep by the lanky
Aussie.
Entering the UFC out of
Cage Warriors, Elliott appeared to have limited upside as a
well-rounded welterweight without standout size, athleticism or
skill in any one area, who had gotten along on gameness, fight IQ
and a knack for nullifying his opponents’ best strengths.
By that standard Elliott has been a pleasant surprise, winning his
first three fights in the promotion, but the losses to Micallef, in
which we saw just how narrow his margin for error can be against
fighters who do have an elite weapon or two, and to Seok Hyeon
Ko, in which he got exactly the kind of fight he tends to
prefer and simply came up short against a bigger, more skilled
fighter, have shown his ceiling. Elliott does his best work as a
midrange boxer who mixes in well-timed takedowns and tries to
maneuver his opponent into the fence, where his striking and
wrestling are both at their most effective.
Oliveira is exactly the kind of undefeated, exciting but somewhat
unproven prospect that
Dana White’s Contender Series still sends to the UFC on a
regular basis. He is a tall, rangy orthodox kickboxer with fast
hands, crisp combinations and above-average power. He is capable of
throwing some eye-popping kicks, but they tend to serve as setups
and punctuation for his punching.
On the Contender Series against Victor
Valenzuela, another solid striker who has subsequently joined
the UFC himself, Oliveira was so patient in Round 1, getting his
reads and finding his range, that he may have lost the round on the
judges’ scorecards despite being clearly the more skilled fighter.
Once he flipped the switch in the second round, he couldn’t seem to
miss, and Valenzuela went down under a brutal hail of punches. It
was a surprisingly veteran look from a then 8-0 prospect, and it
might speak well of his upside in the UFC.
Overmatched as Valenzuela was, he is probably the best fighter
Oliveira has faced thus far, and Elliott should be a substantial
step up from there. Notably, Elliott has a very good track record
at making taller, quicker kickboxers uncomfortable with his smart
blend of forward movement, busy hands and the threat of the
takedown. The wide betting line notwithstanding, it’s possible to
picture Elliott frustrating and nullifying Oliveira for two rounds,
then holding on for the decision win.
However, the lean here is that Oliveira rises to the level of his
opposition here and learns a few lessons in fight management while
keeping his record spotless. The pick is that Oliveira is once
again patient in the first round, maybe to a fault, but
demonstrates his clear superiority on the feet across the final two
rounds to win going away.
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