President Donald Trump takes a big hit with white voters without a college degree as approval rating drops double digits

President Donald Trump‘s approval rating among white voters without a college degree — long the foundation of his political coalition — has fallen sharply during his second term, according to CNN polling.

The group approved of Trump at 61 percent in February 2025, shortly after he returned to the White House. By late July 2026, approval had fallen to 46 percent, while 54 percent disapproved, leaving him with a net negative rating of eight points.

The decline is a notable shift for the voting bloc that helped propel Trump to victory in 2024. Exit polls showed he carried white voters without a college degree by a 66 percent to 32 percent margin over then-Vice President Kamala Harris. The erosion could pose a challenge for Republicans ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, when Democrats are seeking to regain control of Congress.

Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Program at George Washington University, told Newsweek that Trump built his political rise by convincing these voters Democrats had abandoned them economically. Belt said many now believe Trump, who campaigned on improving the economy, has instead made conditions worse, citing tariffs and the war with Iran.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle defended the administration’s record in a statement to Newsweek, saying no president has done more for working Americans. He pointed to job creation, lower inflation and housing affordability initiatives, calling Trump’s accomplishments “just the beginning.”

The numbers behind the slide

The latest CNN poll surveyed 1,225 adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. It found Trump underwater by eight points with white voters without a college degree.

The slide has been gradual. In January 2026, the group still gave Trump a net positive approval rating of 52 percent to 49 percent. By March, that narrowed to 50 percent to 49 percent. His approval stood at 54 percent in July 2025 before reaching its current low, well below the 61 percent peak recorded in February 2025.

Peter Enns, a Cornell University government professor and co-founder and chief data scientist at Verasight, told Newsweek the trend is “extremely concerning” for Trump and Republicans.

Enns said perceptions of Trump’s priorities have shifted dramatically. In February 2025, 59 percent of white voters without a degree said Trump was focused on the country’s most important problems, while 41 percent disagreed. By July 2026, those numbers had reversed, with only 39 percent saying he had the right priorities and 61 percent saying he had not.

Economy and Iran war drive the discontent

Economic concerns appear to be driving much of the decline.

Only 37 percent of white voters without a college degree approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 31 percent approved of his response to inflation. His approval rating on the Iran war stood at 39 percent among the same group.

The bloc remained more supportive of Trump on other issues. Fifty-five percent approved of his handling of immigration, while 56 percent backed his approach to voting rights and election integrity.

Higher gasoline prices have added to economic concerns. According to the American Automobile Association, the national average reached $4.098 per gallon on July 30, up from $4.091 a week earlier and $3.847 a month earlier, after disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher.

Trump has continued defending his tariff policy, arguing it will strengthen domestic manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit despite short-term costs. Many economists, however, argue the tariffs function as a tax on consumers that raises prices.

Earlier in July, Trump said the United States has “the greatest economy we’ve ever had,” pointing to $19.2 trillion in announced investment commitments.

What it means for the midterms

Enns cautioned that weaker support for Trump does not necessarily translate into Democratic gains. He said voters rarely switch parties between elections, making lower Republican turnout a more likely outcome than widespread defections.

Belt agreed, saying there is a “high likelihood” many dissatisfied white voters without a college degree simply stay home rather than vote Democratic, noting that Democratic favorability has not risen significantly alongside Trump’s declining numbers.

Broader polling also points to a difficult environment for Republicans.

The CNN survey showed Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by eight points, 47 percent to 39 percent. A Quinnipiac University poll found Democrats ahead 48 percent to 41 percent. A survey by The Argument and Verasight showed an eight-point Democratic advantage, 54 percent to 46 percent, while an Ipsos/Reuters poll found Democrats leading by two points, 40 percent to 38 percent.

Trump’s overall approval rating also reached new lows during the same period, registering 32 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll and 34 percent in the CNN/SSRS survey.

Republicans are also mindful of history. During Trump’s first midterm election in 2018, Democrats gained 41 House seats and reclaimed the chamber, giving them greater leverage over the administration despite losing ground in the Senate.