President Donald Trump ‘laid the foundation for Democrats to win in states where they normally don’t have any business competing,’ elections expert warns
An elections expert has warned that President Donald Trump’s growing unpopularity and plummeting approval numbers might rub off on Republican prospects of retaining both chambers of Congress in the November midterms, which are just 43 days away. As Trump tries to energize voters ahead of the midterms with his extensive campaigning in support of GOP candidates, experts have warned that his underwater approval and favorability ratings might instead contribute to a lack of voter confidence and open up new avenues for Democrats to snatch victories in contests that should have otherwise gone in favor of Republicans.
Donald Trump’s standing ahead of the midterms: What the numbers show
According to a new Marquette Law School survey, 37% of adults approve of Trump’s job performance and 63% disapprove, marking the weakest result of his second term in the poll. A recent Fox News survey placed Trump’s job approval rating at 39%, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll put it at 35%. An NBC News poll released Sunday, September 20, found Trump’s approval rating at 41% among registered voters, which NBC described as a second-term low. The same survey found that 56% disapprove of Trump’s job performance and 55% said his policies have an adverse effect on the economy.
Furthermore, an August I&I/TIPP national survey found that Trump’s approval rating among independents, a key voting bloc that often decides the outcome of close elections, fell from 29% to 26% while disapproval rose from 59% to 61%.
The political environment has turned in favor of Democrats
According to reports, the current political environment heavily favors Democrats, as the general public expresses frustration with Trump’s policies and, by extension, expresses less confidence in the GOP candidates the president has endorsed. Reports have said that Republicans entered 2026 thinking the midterms would focus on border security, immigration and public safety, issues where the party has historically performed well. However, with affordability, inflation and the broader economic fallout resulting from Trump’s military offensive against Iran topping the list of voter concerns, the GOP has reason to worry. According to the NBC poll, 43% of registered voters described opposing Trump as their key drive to vote in the midterms. Overall, the political environment seems to have shifted against Republicans.
Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, said in a statement that Democrats do not need a huge blue wave election to overcome the narrow gap that would help them establish a majority in both the House and the Senate in the midterms. He said that “the president’s poor job approval rating has laid the foundation for Democrats to win in states where they normally don’t have any business competing.” Texas and Iowa, for example, are both longtime GOP strongholds that are currently considered competitive territory.
Donald Trump insists voters consider him on the ballot when they vote in November
In his bid to energize Republican voters, Trump has been campaigning heavily in support of GOP candidates fighting tough battles in competitive states. During his speech at the Republican Party’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas, Trump explicitly asked Republicans to treat the November election as another personal contest, saying, “Pretend that I’m on the ballot. I’m on the ballot, just one more time.” The president seemingly said this with the intent that his popularity would translate into votes in favor of Republican candidates. However, Trump has long been underwater in terms of favorability, popularity and approval ratings — which Democrats intend to cash in on.
Appearing on ABC News’ This Week on September 13, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said that voters do not need to “pretend” anything. “Mr. President, we don’t have to pretend,” Jeffries told host George Stephanopoulos. “You are actually on the ballot. … Donald Trump is absolutely on the ballot in November.” Jeffries said Democrats will focus on what he described as Trump’s failures, telling voters, “Your failed economy is on the ballot. The cost of living crisis is on the ballot.” He also pointed to Iran, gas prices and healthcare. “The Trump tariffs, which have increased costs on everyday Americans by thousands of dollars per year, [are] on the ballot,” he said.
Donald Trump, J.D. Vance try to position Republican Party as the commonsense option
In a final bid to turn voters, Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance used their campaign appearances to position the Republican Party as the commonsense option while portraying Democrats as radical, extreme-left lunatics who seek to upend everything Congressional Republicans have achieved so far. Vance recently urged voters to give the GOP “another chance” and keep them in Congress as the majority party for two more years to continue the work they have been doing. However, it seems the efforts to vilify Democrats are having little effect as the midterms approach, as several polling cycles have shown Democratic candidates leading GOP candidates, even in states where that should not be the case.