Poll: Tight race for US Senate between Cotton, Shoffner – Talk Business & Politics
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner holds a slim lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, but the race is within the statewide survey’s margin of error of 4.7%.
The new Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll of 1,217 likely voters shows Shoffner with 47.4% support compared to Sen. Tom Cotton’s 44% and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin’s 3%. Undecided voters stand at 5.6% in the latest statewide survey, which was conducted Aug. 11-12, 2026. Respondents were asked:
Q: If the election for U.S. Senate was being held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
44% – Senator Tom Cotton (Republican)
47.4% – Hallie Shoffner (Democrat)
2.95% – Jeff Wadlin (Libertarian)
5.65% – Undecided
“Today, this race is a competitive one, but I believe we have miles of messaging to go before attitudes solidify. I think this race is fluid and the amount of money likely to be poured into Arkansas to influence the outcome will be substantial. We will continue to poll this race until early voting begins,” said Roby Brock, Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief.
ANALYSIS
Talk Business & Politics seeks bipartisan input in the construction and analysis of its polls.
Robert Coon, managing partner with Impact Management Group, which works with Republican political candidates, helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:
Donald Trump’s record low approval ratings are impacting Republican candidates across the country as well as in Arkansas, including Senator Tom Cotton. Democrat Hallie Shoffner is receiving 94% of the vote in this survey from voters who strongly disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president – a group which makes up 48% of the survey respondents.
While Cotton receives the support of 82% of Republicans, Shoffner has near universal support from Democrats and leads 59% to 29% among Independents. There is a notable gap along educational attainment lines, with college degree holders favoring Shoffner (+33%), and non-college degree holders preferring Cotton (+17%). Cotton is winning with men (47% to 44%), while Shoffner leads with women (51% to 41%).
A bright spot for Cotton is that he is tied among voters 45-64 and leads by 22-percentage points with voters 65 and older. These are high propensity mid-term voters and will provide him with a strong base of support to turn out.
While Shoffner has targeted Cotton on farming and agricultural issues, nothing in the county breakdown suggests she has found an advantage on those issues, in fact, Cotton appears strong in rural areas.
With millions of dollars yet to be spent, primarily by Cotton, there is ample time and opportunity for these numbers to change going into the November election.
Dr. Jay Barth, emeritus professor of politics at Hendrix College, is active in Democratic Party politics and also helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:
It is the race for the U.S. Senate where President Donald Trump’s challenges with Arkansas voters show themselves most clearly. This is particularly true among independent voters. In short, the patterns for Trump are the patterns for Tom Cotton, leaving the two-term US Senator in a tough spot politically going into the fall campaign.
While she is new to the political scene in the state, Democrat Hallie Shoffner has had an active campaign — particularly on social media — that has allowed her to be seen as an option for Arkansas voters angry about all things Washington, D.C.
Finally, unlike in the Governor’s race, the Libertarian candidate for Senate Jeff Wadlin has not gotten traction and Shoffner is not having to share the anti-incumbency vote. The result at this stage of the campaign: a slight Shoffner lead.
Across his political career, while his 2014 campaign against US Senator Mark Pryor was incredibly impressive, the two-term US Senator has had difficulty deeply connecting with Arkansas voters. Across our years of polling about public perceptions of Cotton, he has had difficulty breaking 50% in job approval or popularity with Arkansas voters. This lack of a deep well of personal connection with the voters of the state makes him vulnerable in a political moment like this in which President Trump, the GOP generally, and incumbent Republicans in Congress are facing interlocking headwinds.
The campaign is just beginning, Cotton’s campaign coffers are full and, as has already been shown, national money will enter the scene to aid in his campaign. We see all the signs in this survey, however, that there will be a legitimate campaign for this statewide office.
Cotton is running very strongly with voters aged 65 and above with this incredibly reliable group of voters giving him 57% support. He also is gaining 82% of GOP identifiers, a somewhat weak performance in this incredibly polarized moment. For Cotton, it is a potential growth area. On the other hand, Cotton is receiving support from approximately one in four Black voters, a strong performance for a Republican candidate. (In contrast, this is a potential growth area for Shoffner.) Finally, Cotton is winning with non-college educated voters (51%-40%) and with men (47%-44%).
The Cotton campaign and its allies have attacked Shoffner with approximately $3 million in ad dollars to date, but those attacks don’t appear to have done much damage at this stage. The Democrat is riding a combination of almost total Democratic support and a two-to-one margin with Independents (59%-29%) to her slight lead. Shoffner also has overwhelming support among voters below 45, a strong lead (63%-29%) among those with a college degree, and a solid lead among women (51%-41%). Although the sample sizes are smaller, Shoffner also is showing some success for a Democrat in the fast-growing northwest Arkansas counties.
As we have said before, this marks a snapshot in the campaign just as the intensity of the campaign is kicking in. However, it appears to have something not seen in Arkansas for years: a competitive statewide race.
METHODOLOGY
The survey of 1,217 likely Arkansas voters was conducted Aug. 11-12, 2026 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. Click here to see a breakdown of poll demographics (see “Methodology” section).
Responses were collected via SMS by phone. The poll is slightly weighted to account for key demographics including ethnicity, education, gender, and geography.
All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. A link back to this specific story is also required for any digital or online usage by other media outlets.
For interviews, contact Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock by email at [email protected].