A new YouGov/The Economist poll finds 46% of Americans side with E. Jean Carroll and 27% believe President Donald Trump, widening sharply among independents and Democrats—while Trump continues denying the allegations. The results land amid weak Trump approval
For many Americans, the question has never been only legal—it has been personal. In a fresh YouGov/The Economist survey, 46 percent of Americans said they sided with E. Jean Carroll, while 27 percent said they believed President Donald Trump about her allegations that he assaulted her in the 1990s.
The gap—nearly two-to-one—cuts across party lines, but it widens into something more dramatic among independents. Among independents, 54 percent sided with Carroll compared with just 14 percent who believed Trump. Even among six percent of self-described MAGA supporters, the poll found they said they believed Carroll’s version of events.
Democrats and Republicans show the sharpest divide. Eighty-three percent of Democrats believed Carroll, while 4 percent believed Trump. Among Republicans, 65 percent believed Trump and 5 percent believed Carroll.
Gender dynamics within the GOP added another layer. Seventy-three percent of Republican men said they believed Trump, compared with 58 percent of Republican women. Republican women were also more likely to be unsure, at 36 percent, versus 22 percent for men.
The numbers arrive after years of litigation and multiple jury findings against Trump. including a 2023 verdict in which a jury awarded Carroll $5 million in damages. That decision was tied to findings that Trump was liable for sexually abusing her in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room in the mid-1990s and for defaming her in 2022 after calling her claims a “hoax” and a “con job.”.
A separate defamation judgment also looms large: an $83 million award against Trump was upheld on appeal in September 2025.
The legal reasoning sharpened after a key statement from Federal Judge Lewis Kaplan, who oversaw the cases. He clarified the distinction around the term “rape. ” saying that the fact Carroll failed to prove she was “raped” within the meaning of the New York Penal Law did not mean she failed to prove that Trump “raped” her in the broader way many people understand the word. He wrote that the jury found Trump did “in fact” do exactly that.
Even as the courtroom record solidified, Trump has kept rejecting Carroll’s account. In an interview with The Hill. he said. “I’ll say it with great respect: Number one. she’s not my type. Number two, it never happened.” He also called Carroll “totally lying” and said he knew “nothing about this woman.”.
That denial faced scrutiny during a 2022 deposition when Trump was shown a black-and-white photograph from a 1987 event featuring Trump. Ivana Trump. Carroll and John Johnson. Trump pointed to Carroll and said. “That’s Marla. ” confusing her with Marla Maples. before his attorney. Alina Habba. corrected him.
In the opening statements in the first trial. Carroll’s lawyer Shawn Crowley directly addressed the “not my type” claim. telling jurors while showing a photo of the pair. “This will show you that Ms. Carroll was exactly his type.” Carroll later responded to Trump’s denial with humor during an appearance on AC360 when Anderson Cooper asked her about the “not my type” comment. She said, “I love that. I’m so glad I am not his type.”.
Public approval has also shifted in ways that make the political stakes feel immediate. The poll about Carroll comes alongside historically weak approval numbers for Trump in a separate Economist/YouGov survey. In that survey. 61 percent of Americans said they disapproved of his job performance. compared with 35 percent approval—a net negative of 26 points.
Among independents, disapproval reached 71 percent and approval was 21 percent, marking one of his weakest readings with that group across both terms.
Americans also largely approved of the decisions tied to the case. The poll found Americans approved of the rulings by a 48 percent to 30 percent margin, including 50 percent to 21 percent among independents.
The rulings themselves strengthened Trump’s legal position only in the narrowest sense—most of the record remains unfavorable. Two juries found him liable, and two appellate courts upheld those verdicts. The Second Circuit rejected Trump’s perjury claims. Judge Kaplan also ruled that the funding dispute did not affect Carroll’s credibility.
Taken together, the facts that have landed in court—two jury findings, appellate upholding, and Kaplan’s explanation of the “rape” distinction—now sit beside a public mood that seems willing to match those outcomes with personal belief.
Still, major questions remain unsettled. It is not yet clear whether the Supreme Court will hear Trump’s appeals. It is also unclear whether Carroll will collect the full $88.3 million judgment and whether a DOJ investigation will lead to charges. Each outcome could shape how this case—born in a department store dressing room—continues to define one of the most consequential legal battles of the Trump era.
E. Jean Carroll Donald Trump YouGov Economist/YouGov poll court rulings defamation judgment public opinion MAGA Supreme Court Lewis Kaplan Bergdorf Goodman dressing room