Poll shows Pamela Evette leading in South Carolina GOP

A Trafalgar Group tracking poll released Monday finds South Carolina lieutenant governor Pamela Evette ahead in the state’s GOP gubernatorial primary, setting a competitive tone for the race as Nancy Mace faces pressure over President Donald Trump’s endorsemen

South Carolina’s GOP gubernatorial primary is tightening into a direct test of who can carry President Donald Trump’s support—and a new poll suggests Pamela Evette may be doing that best.

In a Trafalgar Group tracking poll released Monday. Evette leads with 26.3 percent among Republican June primary voters. putting her ahead of businessman Rom Reddy at 17.2 percent. Attorney General Alan Wilson follows with 16.9 percent, Congressman Ralph Norman has 16.1 percent, and U.S. Congresswoman Nancy Mace sits at 14.8 percent. The remaining candidates are Jacqueline Dubose at 2.4 percent and South Carolina State Senator Josh Kimbrell at 1.9 percent. while 4.4 percent of voters are undecided.

The poll was taken from May 29 to May 31 among 900 Republican June primary voters, with a 2.9 percent margin of error. The numbers land just after Trump endorsed Evette last week in her bid against Mace and a larger field ahead of the state’s GOP gubernatorial primary.

Mace and Evette have been wrestling publicly with what Trump’s backing means for the race—and for their own political identities—long before Election Day can quiet the noise.

On Monday, taking to X, Mace emphasized her connection to Trump, saying, “I’m the only candidate running for Governor who worked for President Trump and helped get him elected in South Carolina in 2016 – the very first time he ran.”

The argument cuts to the heart of how both campaigns want voters to read the endorsement. Trump has landed numerous election-related wins amid midterm and primary season. and he backed opponents in races that Republican Bill Cassidy lost and Republican Congressman Thomas Massie lost. Trump’s endorsement decisions have become a kind of political shorthand for what voters may expect next.

Trump has endorsed against Mace in the past. but he backed her re-election in 2024. describing her in part as a “strong conservative voice.” Mace also backed Trump in his race for the White House in 2024. Yet she has been noticeably critical of the Department of Justice’s handling of the Epstein files.

Over the weekend, Mace referenced Epstein, saying, “I was one of just four republicans who voted to release the Epstein files and I would do it ALL OVER AGAIN.” Her campaign framing suggests the fight over transparency isn’t just policy—it’s a line she says she can’t cross.

After Trump endorsed Evette, Mace responded on X Friday night with a lengthy message. She said in part. “I have enormous respect for President Trump and everything he has done for our country and for South Carolina. That respect is genuine and it is unchanged.” She added that her demands for transparency surrounding the Epstein files “put the likelihood of an endorsement on the line.”.

Mace later said, “South Carolina deserves a Governor who answers to her people, not to the establishment, and not to anyone who believes accountability is negotiable.” Since Trump’s endorsement of Evette, she has posted numerous pictures of the president on social media.

Over the weekend, she posted a picture alongside Trump on X with the caption, “I have a 100% lifetime voting record supporting Trump.”

Evette, for her part, pushed the endorsement as a validation of her own profile. She touted Trump’s backing on social media over the weekend. and in one post she said. “Just like President @realDonaldTrump. I spent the majority of my life in the business world. I’m an entrepreneur and a business owner, not a career politician.”.

The poll also sits in a changing landscape reflected by earlier Trafalgar Group numbers from the same pollster. In a previous survey by the Trafalgar Group, Evette led with 19.9 percent compared to Wilson’s 19.4 percent. Reddy had 19 percent, Norman had 15.9 percent, Mace had 14.6 percent, Dubose had 3.2 percent, and Kimbrell had 2.3 percent. That survey also showed 5.6 percent were undecided. It was taken from May 21 to May 24 among 1,125 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of 2.9 percent.

Another poll at the end of April by co/efficient showed Evette in the lead with 21 percent. while Wilson had 18 percent. Norman had 13 percent. Mace had 12 percent. Reddy had 11 percent. and Kimbrell had 2 percent. In that poll, 22 percent were undecided. The co/efficient poll was taken on April 29 and April 30 among 813 likely Republican primary voters and had a margin of error of 3.44 percent. It noted that Mace dropped 5 percent and Evette gained 2 percent compared to a previous survey by the pollster at the end of March.

In an earlier March poll by co/efficient. Mace landed 22 percent. Evette had 21 percent. Wilson had 19 percent. Norman had 8 percent. Kimbrell had 1 percent. and 29 percent were undecided. That poll was taken on March 12 and March 13 among 810 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of 3.43 percent.

Taken together. the figures point to a race where support from Trump is only one variable—though it’s a variable both campaigns are treating like a turning point. With Evette holding a lead in the most recent Trafalgar tracking poll and the Mace campaign tying itself to a struggle over transparency in the Epstein files. the next phase of the GOP primary may come down to whether voters see the endorsement as momentum—or as a test of independence.

Pamela Evette Nancy Mace South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary Donald Trump endorsement Trafalgar Group tracking poll Epstein files Rom Reddy Alan Wilson Ralph Norman Jacqueline Dubose Josh Kimbrell