Todd Cordell
• Betting Analyst
12+ years betting experience
Updated:
Aug 24, 2026 , 10:35 AM ET
• 4 min read
The Seattle Mariners rank last in home wOBA vs. righties the past month, which should lead to trouble against Zack Wheeler and the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies (-115).
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays
The surging Philadelphia Phillies have won nine consecutive games and are -115 favorites to reach double digits tonight.
With a more in-form offense and an ace-caliber arm on the mound, my Phillies vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks believe the value lies with the road team on Aug. 24.
Who will win Phillies vs Mariners today: Phillies (-115)
The Seattle Mariners own a putrid .259 wOBA vs. righties at home over the past month, ranking dead last in the majors.
They now have to contend with Zack Wheeler, who slots in the 96th percentile in Pitching Run Value. Not ideal.
Logan Gilbert is the more attackable arm. He’s a 66th percentile arm in xERA, and has allowed three runs or more in six of his last nine starts.
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit righties well the past month, ranking fifth in OBP and 12th in ISO. They’re more likely to provide run support.
Back Philadelphia to -125.
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Phillies vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (+100)
The Mariners have faced eight arms who profile similarly to Wheeler, including Chase Burns, Cam Schlittler, and Dylan Cease. They scored five earned runs against the eight starters fitting the criteria.
They’ve had a miserable time going up in class against ace-caliber pitchers, and that should continue against Wheeler tonight.
Philadelphia has not hit for anywhere close to the same level of power on the road, besting only the Royals in OPS.
Gilbert should be able to limit the home runs in pitcher-friendly conditions, and that will help avoid bulk scoring.
Bet the Under to -113.
Phillies vs Mariners home run prediction: Bryce Harper (+475)
Gilbert combines to throw the fastball and slider more than 60% of the time against left-handed hitters. That sets up well for Bryce Harper, who hits those pitches extremely well.
Harper is sporting a ridiculous .552 ISO against right-handed fastballs, and he’s no slouch facing sliders (.382 wOBA, .229 ISO).
Nobody on the Phillies comes close to Harper’s outputs vs. that combination, making him an appealing buy at +475.
Bet to +450.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 88-80, -10.15 units
- Over/Under bets: 86-76-6, -1.13 units
Phillies vs Mariners weather
Temperatures are expected to sit in the low 70s with winds blowing southeast. Favorable pitching conditions.
Phillies vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Phillies -115 | Mariners -105
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+160) | Mariners +1.5 (+190)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-120) | Under 6.5 (+100)
Phillies vs Mariners trend
Philadelphia has cashed the game total Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+10.35 units, 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mariners.
How to watch Phillies vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Monday, August 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, Mariners.TV |
| Phillies starting pitcher | (10-4, 2.92 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Gilbert (10-7, 3.35 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mariners latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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