A new poll from Alaska Survey Research shows Democrat Mary Peltola leading incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, adding fuel to Democrats’ push to retake Congress in November midterms. The numbers tighten the story of control in a Senate currently held 53-47
For Democrats watching the map for any sign of opportunity, Alaska suddenly looks like one of the rare places where a flip isn’t out of reach.
A new poll from Alaska Survey Research shows Democrat Mary Peltola holding a lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, with Peltola at 48.4 percent and Sullivan at 43.8 percent in a hypothetical matchup released Tuesday. The margin is wide enough to matter. but not so wide that it settles the question of whether Alaska’s Senate seat can actually change hands.
The stakes sit inside a Senate that is already hard for Democrats to crack. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber, leaving Democrats needing four seats to win control or three seats to tie—an outcome that would put Vice President JD Vance in the position of tiebreaker.
This year’s political climb is shaped by the broader landscape: Democrats are trying to retake the House and Senate in the upcoming November midterms. and the Senate is widely seen as the steeper lift because this year’s map offers few obvious openings for flips. Yet the White House’s standing with voters remains part of how Democrats are framing their hopes.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterm election cycle. Democrats are betting that President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating could give them an edge in key races. including Alaska. Trump’s approval is also described as dropping on policy issues like the economy and immigration. alongside declines with voting blocs like millennials and independents.
Still, Democrats are not operating in a one-way political story. Trump has also secured key primary wins, including after Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy lost his race and Republican Congressman Thomas Massie lost his. Trump backed both of the opponents who won those contests.
In Alaska. the new numbers arrive as Democrats test whether that national mood can translate into votes—especially in a state where name recognition and turnout can quickly reshape a close contest. Trump isn’t the candidate on the ballot. but his broader political gravity is part of the conversation around what might be possible this November.
Peltola’s poll standing is also accompanied by a more fragmented picture on the Republican side. The survey lists potential Republican candidates Dustin Darden and Gerald Heikes at 5.1 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.
The poll was taken from May 14 to May 17 among 1,401 likely voters, with a 3 percent margin of error. That matters because it puts the outcome in range: a few points either way could turn the lead into a tie—or reverse it.
The shift is also being measured against a prior survey from the same pollster. In a survey taken last month, Peltola received 49.1 percent compared to Sullivan’s 42.5 percent. In that round, potential independent candidate Sid Hill received 3.2 percent and possible Republican hopeful James Ryan had 5.2 percent. That earlier poll covered April 16 to April 19 among 1,946 likely voters with a 2.5 percent margin of error.
A campaign spokesperson for Peltola responded in a statement about last month’s poll. saying. “Alaskans know that Mary is a fighter who will stand up to anyone to take on the rigged system in DC and put Alaska first. From Nome to Juneau. and every community in between. Mary is building a broad coalition of excited Alaskans who are ready to fire self-serving Dan Sullivan this November.”.
The primary election is scheduled for August, with the general election set for November 3.
Other polling earlier in the year suggested the race could stay competitive. In an Alaska Survey Research poll in March. Peltola also led in a hypothetical round 1 vote. with 48.8 percent backing her and 43.5 percent backing Sullivan. Potential Republican candidate Christopher Miklos landed 5.2 percent, and potential Democratic hopeful Ann Diener received 2.4 percent. That poll was conducted from March 19 to March 22 among 1. 590 Alaskan adults and 1. 512 registered voters. with a margin of error of 2.7 percent.
Even with the Democratic edge in these surveys, the race hasn’t been universally treated as a flip-in-waiting. The Cook Political Report has rated the contest Lean Republican, giving incumbent Sullivan the edge.
When you line up the numbers across the past two months. the story that emerges isn’t that Alaska is suddenly guaranteed to change hands. It’s that the lead in one of the Senate’s most difficult fights has persisted—long enough to make Democrats adjust their expectations about what November could bring.
Mary Peltola Dan Sullivan Alaska Senate race Alaska Survey Research poll JD Vance tiebreaker November midterms Trump approval rating Senate control