The Padres are a much better team than they showed during a two-month stretch earlier this season.
They are, however, not the team they need to be for the next two months (or more).
So the Padres will make an effort to improve their roster by Monday’s 3 p.m. trade deadline.
There is no way to confidently predict what an A.J. Preller-orchestrated trade deadline will end up looking like. The man makes things happen at this time of year.
If there were a trophy given out for winning the trade deadline, the Padres’ front office would have a glass case with four of those prizes.
No one is predicting, as they have leading up to some of Preller’s more prolific midsummer machinations, that a blockbuster is in the works.
The Padres continue to maintain their best chance of playing into October lies in the players they already have and the pitchers they anticipate getting back.
But there seems virtually no doubt at this point that they will at least add a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. They also aim to acquire a left-handed hitter.
Preller has the freedom to add payroll, though that leeway is said not to be great.
The likelihood of closer Mason Miller being traded was never high, and it has seemingly been entirely extinguished as the team has played better in July and sat one game out of a National League playoff spot as of Saturday morning.
There is less clarity on the fate of left-hander Adrián Morejón, who will be a free agent after the season and is expected by many in the industry to get a deal akin to many closers given the fact he is 27 years old, has been one of the best relievers in the majors for going on three seasons and seems to be getting better.
Morejón would not bring back as much as Miller, who is arguably a generational type of talent and is under team control for three seasons beyond this one. But top back-end relievers are at a premium, surpassed only by starters, and moving Morejón could be a means toward the end of filling more holes than they might otherwise be able to.
But the hole created by such a move would be severe. Trying to win without Miller or Morejón could be considered counterproductive.
A deep, back-loaded bullpen has always been a cornerstone of a Preller playoff team.
That is why he got Josh Hader in 2022 and Tanner Scott and Jason Adam in ‘24 and Mason Miller in ‘25. He added those pitchers, three of them All-Star closers, to bullpens that already had a closer.
To unload one of them now would run counter to the idea of still trying to make the playoffs.
However, it does seem likely the Padres will deal from their roster’s greatest strength.
Dealing from strength
Several people, both inside and outside the organization, have predicted the Padres will trade away players from the major league roster, which could mean one of their four left-handed relievers (or another relief pitcher) is traded.
A bullpen full of desirable arms could be raided for spending capital, because the Padres do not have the same volume of highly desirable minor leaguers that allowed them to do things like send away 16 players and acquire 10 at the deadline in 2020 or to acquire Josh Hader and Juan Soto in 2022.
The Padres probably have a better farm system than the publications that rank such things give them credit for. And there probably is not that much difference between No. 30, which the Padres’ minor league talent assemblage is widely judged on the outside to be, and No. 20.
And regardless of whether they are No. 15 or 18 or 30, the Padres have enough prospects to package in order to land good major league talent.
Members of the front office, speaking this past week, did not rule out the Padres doing another deal like the one last July that sent six members of their 2024 draft class to the Orioles for Ramón Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn and the money to pay most of the remaining portions of both of those players’ salaries.
Preller made five trades that added six players to the major league roster last deadline without adding any money to the payroll.
One of those deals involved sending No.1 prospect Leo De Vries and three other minor leaguers to the Athletics for Miller and JP Sears.
The Padres do not have a prospect of De Vries’ caliber. Catcher Ethan Salas is not untouchable but is not expected to be moved.
Plenty of possibilities
Acquiring many middling starting pitchers would also carry the cost of their remaining salary for this season.
The following list is offered with the caveat that it is overwhelmingly incomplete and that the Padres have “shown interest” or “called on” virtually every available starting pitcher and quality left-handed batter plus a bunch of other players in recent days:
- Mets right-hander Freddy Peralta (4.99 ERA) is owed $2.4 million after Aug. 3 and has been on the Padres’ radar for his ability to eat innings. His Mets teammate, Clay Holmes, who is set to come off the injured list after missing nearly three months with a fractured fibula, is owed $3.8 million after the deadline. The Padres have scouted the Mets heavily.
- The competition for the Angels’ Reid Detmers (4.03 ERA) and José Soriano (3.29) figures to be fierce since they are both due $800,000 after the deadline and are under team control through 2028.
- The Padres were not a player for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the prize of the deadline. But his rotation mate, Casey Mize, in Detroit is due just $1.6 million after Monday. However, Mize (2.70 ERA) will also likely extract a big prospect price.
- The Yankees are evidently desperate for bullpen help and have a pair of young starters the Padres have been watching in lefty Ryan Weathers (3.99) and Will Warren (4.14). The Padres are familiar with Weathers, who came up as one of their top prospects and who they traded at the deadline in 2023 for Garrett Cooper and Sean Reynolds.
- The Mariners are reportedly dealing, and the Padres know roughly what it would take to get Emerson Hancock (3.26 ERA) or George Kirby (3.98 ERA). Hancock, who is owed $200,000 and is under control through 2030, and Kirby, who is due $2.2 million after Monday and is not due to be a free agent until 2029, might carry too steep a price.
- The Padres could trade for the Reds’ Nick Lodolo, who is owed $1.4 million the rest of this season and is under control one more season, just so he could stop dominating them. He is having a down season with a 4.60 ERA, but he has a 2.01 ERA in four career starts against the Padres.
- Left-hander Robbie Ray (3.08) is still owed $7.4 million, which is likely outside the Padres’ price range. However, the Giants are reportedly willing to pay a portion of that, and additional prospects could increase that willingness.
- Multiple people said the Padres have been among the teams to show interest in Luis Arraez, who is leading MLB with a .328 batting average. But Arraez is not only due $3.5 million for the remainder of 2026, he has made it clear he is a second baseman. The Padres have an abundance of those.
- Outfielder Mickey Moniak (.881 OPS, 17 home runs) is a left-handed hitter who makes all the sense in the world for the Padres. But they are far from the only team pestering the Rockies about the La Costa Canyon High School alumnus, who will make $1.7 million after Aug. 3 and is under control through 2027.
- Preller has been borderline obsessed with Jarren Duran for years, and the Red Sox finally seem serious about making him available. Problem is, the outfielder has a .589 OPS this season.
- Reds left fielder JJ Bleday (.813 OPS, 19 homers) could make the Padres better. Bleday, who is owed $400,000 the rest of the way this season and is under team control through 2028, is 6-for-23 with two doubles and two home runs against the Padres over the past two seasons.
Filling gaps
Whatever the Padres do, Monday’s trade deadline will be about plugging holes.
“The 26 guys we’ve got right here are exactly who I need and who we need to win it all,” manager Craig Stammen said this week.
There is little question Stammen believes that. Or wants to believe that.
And that appears much closer to being true than it might seem by a glance at the season stats.
The Padres have averaged 4.19 runs per game this season, 22nd in MLB, and their .695 OPS ranks 25th. But since June 30, their 5.11 runs per game rank seventh while their .788 OPS is fourth highest.
They are temporarily using two starting pitchers and an 11-man bullpen to get through games. It has served to not only help pitchers thrive while pitching in largely favorable matchups but to refresh a beleaguered bullpen.
Jeremiah Estrada recently returned from the injured list, and the belief is Adam will do so by the end of the season, making their high-leverage foursome whole.
Arguably as important as anything is that they expect starting pitcher Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta to return this month.
They believe one of the veteran right-handers being able to provide quality innings can round out the kind of rotation that could, along with a strong bullpen, have a chance to get to October and make a run.