According to new polling carried out by DemosAU for Capital Brief between May 14 and May 20, One Nation has taken a two percentage point lead, now holding 28 per cent of the primary vote. Labor’s vote sits flat on 26 per cent, the Coalition remains at 23 per cent, the Greens have 13 per cent and “others” made up of independents and minor parties are down to 10 per cent of the primary vote. The poll also shows Anthony Albanese leads as preferred prime
minister at 34 per cent, followed by Pauline Hanson at 27 per cent and Liberal leader Angus Taylor at 23 per cent. The Prime Minister’s lead has narrowed since the April poll, with Senator Hanson rising three points and Mr Taylor up one point. DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said current polling, if reproduced at the next federal election due in 2028, would most likely result in a hung parliament. Mr Hasanakos said the recent budget fallout was mostly to blame, with voters viewing
it as “generally bad” despite Labor’s efforts to frame it as a win for the younger generations. “Forty-three per cent of Australians rate the budget as generally bad, against just 23 per cent who see it as generally good,” he said. “That’s a difficult backdrop for a government hoping the budget would arrest its slide in support. “Fifty-three per cent of Australians think the budget changes will make things harder for the average Australian, and 44 per cent think they will hurt the economy. “Those
are sobering numbers for the Treasurer.” April, with Ms Hanson rising 3 points and Mr Taylor rising 1 point. Mr Hasanakos said voter confidence in One Nation existed primarily with their leader Pauline Hanson, noting a likelihood in preference drop if Barnaby Joyce took on the leadership. When asked what would happen to the vote if Senator Hanson gave up the top spot to Mr Joyce, One Nation’s primary vote dropped from 28 per cent to 21 per cent. “Pauline has a unique appeal to
voters beyond those who want the strongest conservative voices,” Mr Hasanakos said. “While One Nation’s initial surge was from conservative voters dissatisfied with the Coalition, since the summer One Nation has been attracting general protest voters.” “Barnaby Joyce as a leader seems to be less potent in attracting general protest voters, however his appeal still retains conservative voters in general. “With Joyce as leader, One Nation still polls above 20 per cent suggesting the strength of the One Nation brand would persist after a Hanson
exit.” Other post-budget polling from Resolve, YouGov and Morgan have all shown a bounce for One Nation, but Labor remaining in the lead.
DemosAU, Capital Brief, One Nation, Labor, Coalition, Greens, preferred prime minister, Anthony Albanese, Pauline Hanson, Angus Taylor, George Hasanakos, hung parliament, federal election 2028, budget fallout, Barnaby Joyce
Hung parliament?? That sounds like Australia is about to implode lol.
So Labor is at 26 and still “lead” but Hanson is preferred more. Idk how math works anymore. The budget fallout is getting blamed but wasn’t it supposed to help younger people? Feels like everyone’s mad.
This part about Barnaby Joyce dropping it to 21% is wild. Like if Hanson dies or steps back suddenly the whole party collapses? Also preferred PM numbers are messy—Anthony leading at 34 but she’s right behind at 27, how is that not basically a tie.
I swear these polls are just made up for clicks. “Generally bad” budget got 43%?? That’s basically everybody who read one headline. Next election in 2028 is forever, people will change their minds once the ads start. Also why is Taylor only at 23 like nobody remembers anything the Coalition did?