Old Farmer’s Almanac 2026 fall forecast: When will your state finally cool off?
If you’ve been counting down the days until sweater weather, pumpkin patches, and bucket list leaf-peeping trips there’s some encouraging news—depending on where you live (or plan to visit for a fall vacation).
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its long-range forecast for fall 2026, predicting a season that’s cooler than average across much of the eastern United States and along the Pacific Coast. But for much of the nation’s interior, summer-like warmth could extend well into September and October.
As always, it’s worth taking these seasonal outlooks with a grain of salt. Long-range forecasts aren’t as reliable as short-term weather predictions, and meteorologists generally caution that conditions can change significantly months in advance.
Still, the Almanac’s annual forecast has become something of a fall tradition, giving weather watchers an early glimpse at what the season could bring. It has an 80% accuracy rate, and sources information from solar science, climatology, and meteorology.
A tale of two falls predicted in 2026
Excited for fall? For some parts of the U.S. – largely in the interior – cooler weather may come a little later this year.
(Marcus Jones via Getty Images)According to the forecast, much of the country will experience one of two very different versions of autumn.
A broad swath stretching from the Northern Plains through the Heartland and into the Deep South is expected to be warmer than average during September and October.
Read More: The Old Farmer’s Almanac fall foliage map shows when leaves will peak in 2026
Meanwhile, the eastern United States and much of the West Coast are forecast to experience cooler-than-normal temperatures that could make it feel more like a classic fall.
When it comes to rainfall, much of the country is expected to be drier than average. The exceptions include the West Coast, the central and northern Rockies, parts of Texas, southern Florida and portions of the Northeast, where wetter conditions are anticipated.
What the fall forecast says for your region
Colorado’s Rocky Mountains will be warmer and wetter this fall.
(imageBROKER/Marek Uliasz via Getty Images)If you live in the Northeast, prepare for a cool, damp start to fall. The Almanac predicts below-average temperatures along with more rainfall than usual.
Along the Atlantic Corridor—including major East Coast cities—September and October are expected to run about 1 degree cooler than normal, with drier conditions overall.
The Appalachians and much of the Southeast are also forecast to be cooler than average, though rainfall is expected to be below normal across much of the region. Northern Florida is expected to turn cooler and drier, while southern Florida could see slightly above-average rainfall despite cooler temperatures.
Across the Midwest, the season looks mixed. The Upper Midwest is expected to start with a cool September before warming slightly in October, while the Heartland may see warmer conditions in northern areas and slightly cooler weather farther south. October could also become noticeably wetter across parts of the region.
In Texas and Oklahoma, the forecast splits in two. Northern areas are expected to be slightly cooler than average with significantly more rainfall—up to 4 inches above normal—while southern Texas is forecast to stay warmer than average.
The High Plains are expected to remain warmer and drier than normal throughout the season.
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Out West, the Pacific Northwest could see one of the wettest forecasts in the country, with temperatures running cooler than average and September bringing as much as 3 inches of additional rainfall.
The Pacific Southwest, including much of California, is expected to stay close to seasonal temperatures in September before turning slightly cooler in October. Northern portions of the region could receive a bit more rain than usual, while southern areas remain drier.
The Desert Southwest is forecast to stay warmer than average in September before cooling slightly in October, with below-average rainfall throughout the season.
Beyond the Lower 48
In Hawaii, both September and October are expected to be cooler than average.
(bodrumsurf / shutterstock)The Almanac also released forecasts for Alaska and Hawaii.
Northern Alaska is expected to be cooler than average, while southern portions of the state trend slightly warmer. Overall precipitation is forecast to be below normal, though some northern communities could see an early snowfall.
In Hawaii, both September and October are expected to be cooler than average. Eastern parts of the islands could receive up to 4 inches more rain than usual, and the forecast notes the possibility of a tropical storm in mid-September.
Whether the Almanac’s predictions ultimately prove accurate won’t be known until the leaves start changing. But if the forecast holds, millions of Americans—especially those in the East and along the West Coast—may be reaching for sweaters a little earlier this year.