Oil prices swung lower after a U.S. official said Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire from 4 p.m. local time on Friday. The move came as U.S.-Iran follow-up talks in Switzerland were called off and Vice President JD Vance canceled a trip, leaving trader
For a moment, oil looked like it might coast on the promise of quiet. Then traders were reminded how fragile that kind of hope can be.
Oil prices turned lower after a U.S. official said Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire from 4 p.m. local time on Friday (9 a.m. ET). Brent crude futures for August were last seen 1% lower at $79.02 per barrel, wiping out earlier gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for July traded 0.8% lower at $75.96. Both contracts were on track for a weekly loss of about 8%.
The ceasefire claim landed amid fresh signs of uncertainty around diplomacy. Follow-up talks between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland were abruptly called off. Switzerland’s foreign ministry said U.S.-Iran talks scheduled to take place at Bürgenstock on Friday would not proceed as planned. The White House also said Vice President JD Vance was no longer traveling to Switzerland. citing unresolved logistical issues surrounding the negotiations.
Vance had said on Thursday that tankers with more than 12 million barrels crossed the strait overnight. He told reporters: “The Iranians, for the second night in a row, did not shoot at any ships in the Strait of Hormuz. So far, they are honoring their end of the commitment.”
As the market weighed that progress, it also kept one ear on the bigger picture. In an interview. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the organization does not expect oil demand to peak in the foreseeable future. He also rejected forecasts from the International Energy Agency that point to a future supply glut. “We focus on fundamentals and not putting many ifs and buts in our forecasts. but rather focusing on actual numbers. ” he said.
What’s clear in the day’s trading is the tug-of-war between signals that risk is easing and signals that normal life at sea may take longer to return. Analyst Tamas Varga said Friday it appears investors were convinced that the conditional reopening of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz—along with the lifting of force majeure declarations by Kuwait and the end of the U.S. naval blockade—has made it look as though the disruption that pushed prices above $120 is “well and truly over.”.
Varga called the “60-day truce” an “unambiguously welcome step in the right direction. ” but he warned that even if the agreement holds. the recent sell-off may prove unsustainable in the short term. He pointed to how quickly attention can shift to practical details—whether major shipping lines have resumed transits and whether insurance rates remain elevated.
Tiago Lacerda. a market analyst at Axi. said oil prices are likely to trade between $75 and $82 a barrel in the near term. He added that Brent is roughly down 36% from its peak during the conflict. Lacerda said attention is moving to whether physical reopening actually follows. with the market staying cautious about the speed of normalization.
For now, the market is treating the news like something that may help—but not something that closes the case. By the time traders took in both the ceasefire timing and the stalled U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland, the direction was unmistakable: uncertainty is still priced into every barrel.
oil prices Brent crude West Texas Intermediate ceasefire Israel Hezbollah U.S.-Iran talks Switzerland Bürgenstock JD Vance Strait of Hormuz OPEC Haitham Al Ghais insurance rates Kuwait force majeure