Oil prices surged after Trump said the U.S. will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a move markets treated like a ticking clock rather than just another escalation.
Misryoum newsroom reported that “Reopening the Strait has become the market’s most time-sensitive priority,” according to JPMorgan Chase commodities analysts said Sunday. They pointed to the final tanker expected to clear Hormuz on February 28, with that vessel expected to reach its destination around April 20—an end point where “pre-closure barrels are fully exhausted from the global supply chain.” It’s the kind of detail traders cling to, because it turns geopolitics into logistics.
The numbers behind the stress looked bleak. Last week, only 24 ships passed through the strait out to the ocean. On Friday, only two ships passed, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence that was shared with NBC News. Neither were oil or gas tankers. That came after optimism briefly surfaced—markets had looked ahead to a potential off-ramp as hopes built around the Islamabad talks.
Trump made the announcement early Sunday after Vice President JD Vance, along with Trump’s special envoy for peace, Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, flew to Islamabad to hold talks with Iranian regime leaders amid a two-week ceasefire. But without an agreement to end the war or defuse tensions, and with the threatened blockade hanging over shipping lanes, the earlier calm faded quickly.
Last week oil prices dropped more than 12% on hopes that the Islamabad talks would lead to an off-ramp for the administration to start winding down the war. The S&P 500 rose 3.5% week—almost like the market was trying to bargain with itself. Even then, Misryoum editorial desk noted that stock futures didn’t fall as much as some strategists feared over the weekend, underscoring that investors still clung to the possibility the conflict could be diffused soon.
Still, the mood shifted from “maybe soon” to “what happens if it doesn’t.” Misryoum analysis indicates that the focus now turns to whether the naval blockade encourages another round of negotiations, whether the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen try to block the southern end of the Red Sea and what the likes of China make of interference in their oil imports, said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING. On JPMorgan’s trading desk, analysts agreed that “Trump seems to be pivoting away from kinetic action,” and that the U.S. naval blockade of Hormuz “looks designed to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.” They added, “we think it is most likely that the 2-week ceasefire is extended or that an agreement is made before the deadline. A lasting drawdown is unlikely.”
Even with the more careful language about navigation, the practical consequence is blunt: consumers may feel it at the pump. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan wrote on X that “Gas prices are likely to return to climbing,” with price hikes possibly resuming “as early as tomorrow.” He said gas prices have risen more than $1.20 per gallon since the war began, to a national average of $4.12 Monday, according to AAA. The speaker of Iran’s parliament wrote Sunday on X: “Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”
One small moment stood out in the way people discussed it in plain language. In the morning light, the air outside a gas station always smells faintly like gasoline anyway, but this time the talk was different—more like waiting for the next number to tick up.
Trump himself said prices could continue to rise, and when asked whether prices would be lower by the time of the midterm elections, he responded: “I think so. It could be, it could be or the same, or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same.” Then U.S. Central Command appeared to clarify the scope of the blockade in a statement, saying it would affect only “maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.” The statement added that U.S. “forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.” Central Command also said the blockade had not begun immediately, as Trump said, but would start at 10 a.m. ET Monday.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields also rose slightly on Monday, which can lead to higher interest rates for consumers. The 10-year yield rose to nearly 4.35%, it’s highest since early last week. And somehow, everything—yields, tankers, and ceasefire timelines—feels connected, even if the market won’t say that out loud.
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