A new poll shows over 70% of Northern Ireland voters believe Brexit is a failure, with declining support for the Windsor Framework and rising political division.
More than 70 per cent of people, including a majority of Leave voters, agree that Brexit has been more of a failure than a success in Northern Ireland, an opinion poll has suggested.. The results of the research from Queen’s University Belfast also indicate that two-thirds of people in the region believe Brexit has made the break-up of the UK more likely.. The polling, carried out for Queen’s by LucidTalk, suggests that close to half
of voters (48 per cent) do not agree that the 2016 Brexit referendum was based on a “fair democratic process”, while 40 per cent agree.. The report is the 15th in the “Testing the Temperature” series on Northern Ireland voters’ views on Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol/Windsor Framework, led by Professor David Phinnemore and Professor Katy Hayward.. Previous reports were produced as part of a four-year project led by Queen’s and funded by the
Economic and Social Research Council.. This latest poll was conducted between April 17-20, using a weighted sample of 1,050 respondents from across Northern Ireland.. The survey found declining public understanding among respondents of the Windsor Framework, the post-Brexit deal between the UK and the EU aimed at reducing trading frictions between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.. Poll findings included: – 72 per cent of respondents agree that “Brexit has been more of a failure than
a success for Northern Ireland”.. This includes 60 per cent of Leave respondents.. – 66 per cent agree that Brexit has made the break-up of the UK more likely; 19 per cent disagree.. – More than twice as many agree (52 per cent) than disagree (23 per cent) that their Brexit-related identity, Leaver or Remainer, is “very important” to them.. – 46 per cent of respondents now regard the Windsor Framework as “on balance a
good thing for Northern Ireland”, the lowest level since June 2021, while 38 per cent disagree.. – Confidence in the NI Protocol/Windsor Framework as a tool for managing Brexit’s effects has declined, with only 46 per cent now viewing it as an appropriate means of addressing Brexit in Northern Ireland, down from 61 per cent in summer 2024 and equal to its previous low recorded in spring 2021.. – Views among respondents of the framework’s
effects on Northern Ireland’s relationship with the rest of the UK remain negative, including on its place in the UK internal market (44% negative vs 28% positive).. – Perceptions of the Windsor Framework’s economic impact are more positive than negative, 45% believe it has had a positive effect on the economy, while 37 per cent believe its impact has been negative.. – A majority of respondents (57 per cent) believe the Windsor Framework offers unique
economic opportunities, down from 68 per cent in summer 2024.. – A majority distrust either a Conservative-led (76%) or Reform-led UK government (70 per cent) to protect Northern Ireland’s interests in EU-UK relations.. – The SDLP is the most trusted party among respondents on the Windsor Framework (38 per cent).. – The TUV the most trusted unionist party (30 per cent) on the issue, though it is also the most strongly distrusted (50 per cent)..
The poll provides further evidence that understanding of the Windsor Framework is declining Professor David Phinnemore Prof Phinnemore said: “The poll provides further evidence that understanding of the Windsor Framework is declining.. “In part, this is no doubt due to the complexity of some of its arrangements.. “Yet the poll findings also show fewer voters believing reliable information is available.. “With the UK and EU negotiating new agreements that are expected to reduce trade frictions
arising from the Windsor Framework, it will be important that the new arrangements are clearly and reliably explained.. “If they are not, then this will only further damage trust levels in the UK Government and the EU.” Ten years after the Brexit referendum, one in two voters in Northern Ireland still see their Leave/Remain identity as very important Professor Katy Hayward Professor Hayward said: “Ten years after the Brexit referendum, one in two voters in
Northern Ireland still see their Leave/Remain identity as very important – across both camps and the political spectrum.. “This constitutes an additional layer of division broadly on top of existing ones.. “The need to manage this with compromise on both sides explains the region’s unique post-Brexit arrangements, ie the Windsor Framework.. “It also helps explain why the majority of both Leavers and Remainers here believe – albeit for different reasons – that Brexit has been
a failure for Northern Ireland.” The survey also suggested a preference among voters for closer ties with the EU – 59% of respondents oppose further loosening of UK-EU ties and 57% support the UK rejoining the EU, with strong gender and Remain/Leave divides.. Almost three-quarters (73%) of respondents support Ireland using its EU Council Presidency to improve EU-UK relations.. More than half of respondents (58%) oppose leaving the European Convention on Human Rights while 36%
support such an exit.. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.3%.
Brexit failure, Northern Ireland, Windsor Framework, Queen’s University Belfast, UK-EU relations, Brexit referendum, political division