Florida Chamber poll shows GOP tilt holding steady

A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll finds GOP candidates leading in key Senate and House matchups, with likely voters expressing sharp concerns about costs.

Florida’s political tilt remains solidly Republican, with new polling suggesting Democrats face an uphill climb just six months before Election Day.

In a survey conducted May 1-9 by Cherry Communications for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, U.S.. Sen.. Ashley Moody holds an eight-point lead over Democrat Alex Vindman in a prospective head-to-head, 48%-40%.. The same margin shows U.S.. Rep.. Byron Donalds topping former U.S.. Rep.. David Jolly, also by eight points.

Donalds’ advantage holds when voters are presented with another potential Democratic contender. In a test pitting him against Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, Donalds’ lead edges up slightly.

The poll’s statewide race results track closely with a generic ballot measure showing Republicans maintaining a 49%-42% advantage among likely Florida voters.

Republicans also appear to be carrying good momentum with the governor. Term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis is rated at 54% approval in the survey, a figure that matches the approval level he received from the same pollster in mid-May of last year.

The topline findings align with Florida’s voter-registration arithmetic.. Republicans ended 2025 with about 1.5 million more registered voters than Democrats, a gap that the poll indicates is holding steady.. On the rolls. Republicans account for 5.5 million voters compared with 4 million Democrats; another 3.8 million voters are registered with neither major party.

Cost-related concerns loom large in voter priorities. About one in six respondents named the economy and cost of living as their top concern heading into November. Property taxes and insurance also rank in the double digits among concerns. Immigration and education each sit at 8%.

The poll also included a business-focused question tied to issues raised at the Florida Chamber Leadership Conference on Safety, Health + Sustainability. It tested whether voters would be more inclined to support companies that prioritize mental health and employee wellbeing.

Roughly three-quarters of those polled, 74%, said they would be more likely to want to work for or purchase from companies they knew invested in mental health and wellness. Just 6% said they would be less likely.

Florida Chamber President and CEO Mark Wilson pointed to the private sector’s role in what he described as long-term behavioral health priorities.. “Florida Chamber member businesses are known for putting the long term over the short term and they know that focusing on making Florida the national leader in behavioral health and overall wellness is good for Florida’s future and great for Floridians. ” Wilson said.

He added that the work continues as private-sector leaders gather in Orlando for the chamber’s leadership conference “to unify around strategies to advance the goals of the nation’s first business-led mental health report launched two years ago here alongside Michael Phelps. national mental health experts and Florida business leaders.”

The Cherry Communications poll surveyed 604 likely voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

With Florida’s registration edge and these early matchup numbers largely unchanged, the signal from the survey is clear: Republicans appear positioned to hold their advantage unless Democratic candidates can force a broader shift in voter sentiment well before the general election.

Florida politics Ashley Moody Byron Donalds Jerry Demings Alex Vindman voter polling