NOAA says El Niño has begun—food systems face shocks

NOAA says – El Niño has officially begun, with NOAA warning it could be the strongest this century. Expected shifts in drought and rainfall across major growing regions could disrupt agricultural production and threaten food security—at a moment when farmers are already a

When El Niño officially began—according to U.S. weather forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA—it didn’t arrive quietly. NOAA says the oceanic pattern known for increasing temperatures worldwide is underway. and meteorologists have warned it could be the strongest El Niño this century.

The stakes are immediate for growers and food systems. because El Niño is expected to drive extreme weather events around the world. including both severe droughts and heavy rainfall. Those swings are likely to disrupt agricultural production and food security. And if the timeline feels frustratingly delayed, that’s because El Niño doesn’t peak right away.

El Niño is part of a cyclical. naturally-occurring weather pattern that redistributes warm air. surface water temperatures. and moisture across the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño. trade winds that typically blow east-to-west from the Americas to southeast Asia slow down or sometimes reverse. Normally. these winds push warm water along the Equator—but during El Niño conditions. that warm water shifts back east.

NOAA’s most recent calculations point to a high likelihood of a “very strong” El Niño. That means average surface temperatures in the Pacific jump by more than 2 degrees Celsius. Some experts are calling this year’s a “super” El Niño. though some agencies. like the World Meteorological Organization. reject that language.

While El Niño occurs every two to seven years, it typically peaks beginning in the summer, around December or the following January. That matters for farmers and supply chains: the most significant impacts may not be felt until months from now.

There isn’t a single predictable playbook for what happens next, either. “Because it impacts a ‘diverse set of geographies. ’” said Weston Anderson. a climate scientist at the University of Maryland. “so ‘there is no one set of impacts.’” El Niño can contribute to severe droughts in one part of the world and heavy rainfall in others—both of which can disrupt growing seasons in key breadbaskets.

At the same time. scientists are still working through a question that affects more than forecasts: how El Niño will interact with global warming. “That question is still really important open science. ” said Jennifer Burney. a professor at Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability whose work focuses on climate and food security.

History shows why the stakes are so sharp when drought and policy collide. In 1877. one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded was associated with historic droughts across Asia. as well as in parts of Brazil and northern Africa. Deepti Singh. an associate professor at Washington State University who co-authored a study on this period of global famine. said the droughts—“along with colonial policies contributed to famines in many regions which were really devastating.” The fatalities associated with these famines were upwards of 50 million people. Singh said. adding. “are humbling to think about.”.

The last El Niño occurred in 2023 and 2024. The World Meteorological Organization said it was one of the five strongest El Niños ever recorded. and it is considered to have contributed to the historic temperatures in 2024. making it the hottest year on record. That past season also carried consequences for growers—especially in arid regions where agricultural producers rely on rainfall to irrigate crops. Droughts driven by El Niño across southern Africa contributed to increased food insecurity and malnutrition in several countries.

In vulnerable regions. Burney said. local governments may sometimes have adaptive strategies already in place—like growing key crops earlier in the growing season or increasing imports during El Niño years—to help offset food insecurity. But even when those measures exist, she pointed out, the economic realities for farmers can remain brutal. “That’s not going to take care of the people whose livelihoods depend on” agriculture. Burney said. even if policies help ensure “enough food.”.

This year’s El Niño arrives with additional pressure on agricultural producers. Burney noted that El Niño conditions are expected to impact a number of growing areas—a setback for producers who have already been dealing with higher input costs stemming from the Iran War. Although the United States and Iran are potentially set to unveil an agreement to reopen the all-important Strait of Hormuz—through which much of the world’s oil flows—farmers worldwide have already been impacted by fertilizer shortages and price hikes since the passage closed this spring.

El Niño-driven weather variability will add to those problems. India. where the majority of the world’s rice comes from. is projected to have a weaker monsoon season. which could reduce yields. Drier, hotter conditions could lead to diminished maize production in southern Africa. In the southern U.S. from California all the way to the eastern seaboard. the year is expected to be wetter than normal. which could lead to flooding and upend crop production.

What remains hardest to pin down is the precise shape of the storm. “The exact way that this El Niño will unfurl is yet unknown,” the reporting notes. As El Niño interacts with the additional warming and moisture currently in the atmosphere caused by climate change. Singh said. “there is likely to be a change in which regions are likely to be affected.” Even so. she added. we can expect “the severity. extent. and likelihood” of extreme weather events like droughts to be higher in today’s warmer climate.

For food systems, that combination—more intense extremes, shifting regional impacts, and a farming economy already squeezed by input costs—lands as a warning that arrives before the worst weather does.

El Niño NOAA food security climate change droughts heavy rainfall agriculture fertilizer shortages monsoon maize rice Strait of Hormuz