NOAA releases – NOAA will release its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on Thursday at the Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, with the season running June 1 through Nov. 30. The forecast comes with key thresholds for naming and hurricane status, and it arri
On a Florida morning when many coastal residents are still trying to read the weather the old-fashioned way—through forecasts, conversations, and gut instinct—NOAA is putting numbers behind the waiting.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is releasing its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday at the Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland. Florida. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking between August and October. That is the window when the greatest number of storms often develop. and when the season’s most intense storms can form.
NOAA says its outlook will be updated several times throughout the summer to reflect changes in the forecast over time. The agency is the federal backbone for weather and climate predictions and includes the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center.
A storm earns a name when its maximum sustained wind speeds reach at least 39 mph. It becomes a hurricane when winds climb to 74 mph. Hurricanes are classified as “major” when winds reach at least 111 mph, a threshold that places them in Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
The agency is also being judged by what it got right last year. NOAA’s 2025 hurricane forecast originally predicted the season would include 13 to 19 named storms. six to 10 hurricanes. and three to five major hurricanes. In August. NOAA adjusted the outlook slightly downward. predicting 13 to 18 named storms. five to nine hurricanes. and two to five major hurricanes.
In the end, 13 named storms formed overall in 2025. That included five hurricanes, four of which were major.
That outcome sat a bit below an average season, which typically brings 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
El Niño could shape what comes next. NOAA’s upcoming hurricane season may be influenced by the transition into El Niño—an oscillating climate pattern that affects weather conditions in the United States and has historically been associated with fewer Atlantic storms. But even with that statistical tilt. the timing matters: El Niño’s emergence “does not necessarily mean that we won’t see any Atlantic hurricane systems. ” and “just statistically. there may be less than average.”.
The pattern doesn’t behave the same way everywhere. On the West Coast, El Niño can act in the other direction. Warmer Pacific waters during El Niño help tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific develop and stay fully structured vertically.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said last week there is at least an 82% chance El Niño will arrive by July. Scientists are still monitoring the conditions that will determine how strong it will be.
NOAA is also releasing its 2026 outlook about six weeks after another major forecast from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones. Radar. Atmospheric Modeling and Software team. That CSU forecast estimated slightly less activity than usual in the Atlantic basin this year. predicting the upcoming season would see 13 named storms. including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Like NOAA, CSU plans to release updated forecasts periodically in the coming months.
When the storms do arrive, the names are already lined up. Every year. the World Meteorological Organization compiles a list of names that are assigned to tropical storms and hurricanes that develop during the upcoming Atlantic season. The roster includes 21 names, each starting with a different letter. If more than 21 storms form in a single year—a rare occurrence—supplemental names are used.
For 2026, the main list of names is: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred.
The season may be months away. but the math is already moving—wind thresholds. update schedules. and the looming possibility that El Niño could quietly tilt the odds. For people living along the Atlantic. this is the moment when uncertainty becomes a timeline: June 1. then every update through the summer. and finally the long stretch from August into October. when the Atlantic typically decides what kind of year it will be.
NOAA 2026 Atlantic hurricane season Lakeland Florida El Niño National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson Scale Tropical Cyclones Radar Atmospheric Modeling and Software team Colorado State University storm naming
So it starts June 1… cool cool cool.
They keep updating it “several times” like that’s supposed to calm people down. My cousin said last year was off anyway so I’m skeptical. Also Lakeland??? why not Tampa weather is right there lol.
Wait, a storm gets a name at 39 mph right? That feels low like it’s already “a hurricane” for the news people. If it’s updated all summer, doesn’t that mean they don’t really know until later? Not trying to be dramatic but I swear every year they guess and then we suffer.
I remember reading NOAA predicted like 13-19 named storms and then it still didn’t hit where I live, so what good is the outlook? I’m just worried about the “major” part—Category 3 and up or whatever. And why do they do it at some operations center, like that’s supposed to make it more accurate. I’ll believe it when the actual storm shows up on my phone.