NOAA AI – NOAA is forecasting a quieter Atlantic hurricane season than usual, with El Niño likely to disrupt hurricane formation and growth. But the agency warns that all it takes is one storm—especially as federal staffing cuts at NOAA and new, AI-driven weather models
The season is almost here, and the numbers coming from NOAA sound like a small exhale: fewer hurricanes than people are used to planning for, at least on paper.
The U.S. agency is predicting eight to 14 named tropical systems. Of those, three to six are expected to become hurricanes, and one to three could reach Category 3 or higher. NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs tied the shift largely to El Niño. the warm-water pattern that tends to reshape weather across the Pacific. A tongue of hot water stretching across the ocean is expected to emerge this summer. and NOAA says it stirs up winds over the tropical Atlantic that make it harder for hurricanes to spin up. Storms that do manage to form can also get torn apart by changes higher up in the atmosphere.
In other words: the atmosphere may not be cooperating for the kind of long. well-fed hurricane growth that can define a busier season. Jacobs pointed to what happened during the three past super El Niños. when accumulated cyclone energy—a measure that factors in storms’ strength and longevity—ran well below normal.
Still, a forecast isn’t a promise. El Niño is only one factor in a season that also responds to hot local ocean temperatures. and the Atlantic is currently warmer than normal. There’s another wildcard too: Sahara dust. Plumes of dust can gum up the atmosphere and inhibit storms from forming. but it’s notoriously difficult to predict when the dust will kick up—exactly what happened last year. Even with an active forecast, the number of named storms ended up below average.
Then came Hurricane Melissa, a storm that formed despite expectations and went on to become one of the strongest ever to make landfall in the Atlantic basin.
Jacobs’ point landed hard: seasonal forecasts are useful for planning—federal and state agencies can preposition supplies and resources—but the danger is always tied to individual storms. “Even though we’re expecting a below average season in the Atlantic. it’s important to understand it only takes one. ” Jacobs said. adding that even in quiet years. Category 5 storms have made landfall.
The forecast’s tone—calmer than usual—collides with something less comfortable inside the agency itself. The Trump administration has slashed staffing at NOAA and reduced the collection of some data. such as weather balloons. that can impact forecasts. Jacobs highlighted the value of new observations, including aerial drones that will be deployed operationally for the first time.
And alongside those new data-gathering efforts is a push deeper into machine-powered prediction. NOAA has ramped up the use of artificial intelligence weather models trained on historical data. During the 2025 hurricane season, the agency tested an experimental hurricane model developed with Google DeepMind. Late last year. NOAA rolled out a suite of AI weather models to use in operational forecasting. alongside traditional models that rely on equations to forecast the weather.
NOAA says the AI version of its flagship model provides better prediction of the tracks of tropical cyclones—the general term that includes hurricanes—but it lags traditional weather models in predicting intensity.
Put together. the season forecast reads like a careful bargain: more help from El Niño and a few atmospheric conditions that can disrupt storm-building. balanced against the reality that forecasts can still miss what one storm might do. Even if 2026 turns out less active than usual. the agency’s message is unmistakable—no one should delete the weather app or treat the outlook as safe.
NOAA 2026 hurricane season Atlantic hurricane season El Niño tropical cyclones Hurricane Melissa Sahara dust artificial intelligence weather models Google DeepMind drone observations weather balloons cybersecurity not included
So what are the chances it’s still crazy tho?
I don’t get it, they say fewer storms and then one kills? Like which one and where?? Also the staffing cuts thing sounds like they’re messing with it.
El Niño is doing the whole “bad hurricane vibes” thing I guess. But if the Atlantic is warmer than normal then how is it quiet? Seems like they’re just picking numbers to sound calm. Last year dust was a problem too right? idk I’m confused.
The AI weather models are why they can’t staff NOAA? Like they’ll replace forecasters with computers and then act surprised when a storm hits. “One kills” sounds like fear mongering but also… yeah everyone knows one hurricane can ruin your week. I hate when they say “almost here” like that’s helpful.