NFIB optimism – NFIB’s April survey shows small business optimism edging up but staying under its long-term average amid inflation pressure and softer sales expectations.
Small business owners are reporting a cautious mix of stability and strain, with optimism inching higher but still sitting below the long-term benchmark as inflationary pressures continue to bite.
In the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. the reading rose 0.1 points in April to 95.9—marking the second straight month it has remained below its 52-year average of 98.0.. At the same time. the Uncertainty Index fell 4 points to 88. still notably above its historical average of 68. suggesting that while uncertainty eased. business leaders remain far from confident.
NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said inflationary pressures remain a major challenge for small businesses. noting that optimism is “fragile.” He added that the benefits of the Working Families Tax Cut Act are expected to start reaching the private sector over the coming months. a factor he believes could help steady sentiment.
NFIB’s Alabama State Director Rosemary Elebash tied the national picture to conditions she said are showing up in her state. emphasizing that inflation is raising the cost of owning a small business.. That. she argued. makes it harder for owners to keep prices in check for customers. undermines planning and slows hiring—effects that can ripple across local communities.
Labor market signals were mixed, but several hiring and sales measures pointed toward slower momentum.. The NFIB Small Business Employment Index fell 1.2 points from March to 100.4.. While the level still suggests some balance in employment dynamics, the decline reflects weakening conditions in the labor market.
The survey also showed ongoing difficulty filling roles.. A seasonally adjusted 34% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in April. up from March and above the historical average of 24%.. Skilled-worker openings were also a problem: 29% of owners cited openings for skilled workers that they couldn’t fill. while 13% reported the same for unskilled positions.
Looking ahead, owners were not uniformly retreating from hiring.. A seasonally adjusted net 13% said they plan to create new jobs in the next three months. slightly up from March and close to the average net 11%.. Overall, 53% reported hiring or trying to hire in April.. But among those attempting to fill positions. 46% said they faced few or no qualified applicants—an indicator that employers may be constrained even when demand exists.
Wage decisions tracked this tension. A seasonally adjusted net 30% of owners reported raising compensation in April, down 3 points from March. Plans were steadier: a seasonally adjusted net 18% said they intend to raise compensation over the next three months, unchanged from the prior month.
The survey’s focus on prices and demand reinforced the inflation-to-operations linkage.. In April, both actual and planned price increases rose.. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased 5 points in April to a net 30% (seasonally adjusted). substantially above the historical average of a net 13%.. For the next three months, a seasonally adjusted net 27% reported plans to increase prices.
Inflation was also prominent among owners’ stated top concerns.. Sixteen percent of small business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem in April. up 2 points from March and ranking third among the issues owners flagged.. The report also found that 18% identified labor quality as their single most important problem. up 3 points from March and above the historical average.. Nine percent named labor costs as the top problem.
Sales expectations softened further.. A seasonally adjusted net negative 8% of all owners reported higher nominal sales over the past three months. down 3 points from March. and the survey described sales as weakening.. Expectations for real sales volumes over the next quarter declined as well: the net percent expecting higher real sales volumes fell 4 points to a net 3% (seasonally adjusted). the lowest reading in 12 months.
Profit trend measures were also less encouraging.. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends rose 6 points from March to a net negative 19% (seasonally adjusted).. Among owners reporting lower profits. 33% pointed to weaker sales. while 15% cited usual seasonal change and 13% attributed declines to rising material costs.. For owners reporting higher profits, the largest share cited sales volume (54%), followed by usual seasonal change (14%) and price change (11%).
Credit conditions remained a specific pressure point for some.. The share of owners reporting paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan rose to a net 2%. up 5 points from March.. Average interest rates paid on short maturity loans increased to 8.3% in April, up 0.4 points from March.. The report also noted that 22% of owners said they were borrowing regularly. down 2 points from March and the lowest level since November 2021.
Despite concerns, business health ratings were not uniformly bleak.. When asked to evaluate overall business conditions. 12% rated their business as excellent (down 1 point). 55% as good (up 4 points). 29% as fair (down 1 point). and 4% as poor (unchanged).. Still. the net percent expecting better business conditions fell 7 points from March to a net 4% (seasonally adjusted). the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since October 2024.
Expansion plans appeared to cool. In April, 7% (seasonally adjusted) said it was a good time to expand, down 4 points from March and the lowest level since October 2024.
Investment and supply chain experiences offered additional context for how inflation and operational frictions are shaping decision-making.. Fifty-one percent of owners reported capital outlays in the last six months. unchanged from March. but the report said actual capital expenditure levels have declined by 9 points since the beginning of the year and remain below the historical average.. Among those spending, 35% reported new equipment purchases, 23% acquired vehicles, and 15% improved or expanded facilities.. Eleven% spent on fixtures and furniture, while 6% acquired new buildings or land for expansion.
Plans for future investment showed a small lift: 17% of owners said they plan to make capital outlays in the next six months, up 1 point from March, which had been the lowest since November 2009.
Inventory views were also mixed.. The net percent reporting inventory gains rose 1 point to a net negative 5% (seasonally adjusted).. Meanwhile. a net negative 2% said their current inventory stocks were “too low. ” up 3 points from March. and a net negative 2% said they plan inventory investment in the coming months. also up 3 points.
Supply chain disruptions continued to register with owners.. In April, 64% reported disruptions affecting their business to some extent, up 2 points from March.. A smaller share—5%—said the impact was significant, while 19% reported moderate impacts and 40% mild effects.. Thirty-five percent said there was no impact.
Credit and price pressures were not the only policy-adjacent element in the survey.. The NFIB’s leadership tied the modest optimism gain to expectations around the Working Families Tax Cut Act. suggesting that if such support reaches businesses as anticipated. it could help counter inflation’s effects and improve hiring and pricing decisions in the months ahead.
The NFIB Research Center said its data are collected through quarterly Small Business Economic Trends surveys and monthly surveys that have been gathered since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn randomly from NFIB’s membership, and the report was conducted in April 2026.
NFIB optimism index small business employment inflation pressure labor market shortages small business sales business uncertainty
so basically nothing changed got it
my cousin owns a small bakery and she said things are actually getting worse not better so i dont know who they are surveying but its not real small business owners thats for sure. these numbers feel made up honestly.
this is what happens when you let big corporations take over everything, small businesses been dying since walmart moved into every town and nobody said anything back then and now everybody acts surprised. i read the whole thing and they keep talking about some tax cut but like who is that even helping, my brother in law tried to open a shop last year and had to close it in like 4 months because of rent and supplies costing too much. the government keeps saying relief is coming but it never actually shows up for the little guy. been hearing that same line since like 2019 or something.
wait so the uncertainty index went DOWN but its still way above normal and theyre calling that good news?? that dont make no sense to me. if my anxiety went from a 10 to a 9 i wouldnt be throwing a party lol. also who is Bill Dunkelberg and why is he the one deciding if things are fragile or not, never heard of him before