New poll shows big shift toward Markey in Dem. Senate primary

Heading into the home stretch before primary day, Sen. Ed Markey is in a strong position to fend off the challenge posed by Rep. Seth Moulton, according to a new poll released Monday. 

Markey has the support of 60% of Democratic primary voters, compared to Moulton’s 32%, the UMass Amherst/WCVB poll found. The large gap marks a notable contrast with polling from earlier this summer, which showed the race to be much closer. 

Markey has advantages across many constituencies. He leads 52% to 43% among men, 65% to 24% among women, 53% to 22% among those aged 18 to 29, and 62% to 29% among those with a college degree. Markey has the support of 61% of white voters and 49% of voters of color, according to the poll. 

“These are many of the same constituencies that powered Markey to victory in his 2020 primary contest against Joe Kennedy III, and our results suggest that these core elements of the Massachusetts Democratic electorate remain firmly in Markey’s camp in 2026,” said Tatishe Nteta, a professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll, in a release.

In June, polling from the University of New Hampshire found that the race was tightening. Markey had the support of 41% of primary voters, compared to Moulton’s 35%. Markey and Moulton have participated in two tense debates since then, with a third and final showdown set for this Thursday. 

The poll was conducted from Aug. 5-12, in the days following the second debate. There were 833 registered voters that participated, 462 of which were self- identified Democratic primary voters.

Markey, the 80-year-old incumbent, is campaigning on his progressive bona fides and extensive experience in Washington. Moulton, meanwhile, says it’s time for a new generation of leaders to take over in the Senate. 

Likely voters view Markey as more “honest,” “empathetic,” “likeable,” “intelligent,” and “hard-working” than his opponent. Moulton is seen as being more “moderate” and “energetic,” according to the UMass poll. 

Markey is more well-known than Moulton, with 34% of likely voters in the poll saying that they have heard “a great deal” about him compared to 29% who say the same for Moulton. 

During their last debate, Moulton joined Markey in identifying as a progressive. But voters are not convinced. Asked to describe Moulton in one word, “moderate” was the top response among likely voters.

One issue weighing on Moulton’s campaign is his support, or perceived lack of support, for the transgender community. Comments Moulton made after the 2024 election sparked immediate backlash, and are still a talking point. Moulton has apologized for the comments and said that he stands wholeheartedly with the transgender community.

The UMass poll found that 67% of voters would be less likely to support a candidate that has “expressed positions opposing transgender rights or policies,” and 68% of voters think Markey would do a better job of representing LGBTQ people. 

Among likely primary voters, Markey is enjoying an 82% approval rating. 

Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, attributed Markey’s lead to three major factors: “considerable reputational advantages,” popularity based on his perceived progressivism and experience, and “strong support from the Democratic Party and the high-profile endorsements from the state’s most prominent Democratic leaders.”

Should Markey defeat Moulton, he would be primed to win another six-year term. Markey leads GOP candidate John Deaton 51% to 30% in a hypothetical general election matchup, the UMass poll found. 

Markey has said that he would step down after one more term, and UMass pollsters asked voters about a slew of potential 2032 Senate candidates. Moulton and Gov. Maura Healey each received the support of 16% of voters, while Rep. Ayanna Pressley received 14%. Former Rep. Joe Kennedy III, whom Markey defeated in 2020, received 10% support. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and Rep. Jake Auchincloss each received 9%.