NBC poll says Trump’s support has dropped among Republicans as midterms approach
An NBC News Decision Desk survey conducted from August 20 through September 1 found that 41 percent of Republicans said they “strongly approve” of Trump’s job performance, down sharply from the 52 percent who felt that way in March and April.
While strongly approving Republicans fell by nearly 10 percentage points, those who only “somewhat approve” jumped from 31 percent to 39 percent, suggesting Trump was losing his most passionate backers while picking up on lukewarm support. Trump’s overall approval rating landed at 36 percent across all voters.
The timing of the decline is especially consequential for Republicans, who are headed into the final stretch of a midterm campaign that is already facing headwinds.
More numbers of disapproval for Trump
The erosion of Trump’s Republican support connects to the mounting economic anxiety that has skyrocketed among citizens. Inflation remained stubbornly high. Gas prices had spiked 27 percent from pre-war levels.
According to polling compiled by political analyst Nate Silver, Trump’s net approval rating on the economy stood at negative 28.3 percent, while his handling of trade, one of his signature policy areas, carried a negative 24.0 percent net approval.
For inflation Trump scored −46.1 percent, while immigration stood at −13.3 percent.
The convention challenge
Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance are preparing to address the Republican base at the first-ever GOP midterm convention in Dallas on September 9 and 10, with the event designed to appeal to party voters and showcase administration accomplishments.
The convention features 109 speakers, yet the timing proved awkward. The event, dubbed ‘Trumpapalooza’ has gotten declining enthusiasm from Republicans and politicians, particularly as it clashes with the NFL season and 9/11 anniversary.
Several members have also reported that the event tickets have been too expensive and others have raised concerns about Trump overshadowing the Republican candidates by boasting of his own supposed successes during his presidential term.
The stakes in November
Political strategists on both sides recognized that the fight for the economy and affordability could prove catastrophic for Republicans if Trump’s declining numbers continued through Election Day. The party faced the prospect of losing control of both chambers of Congress if voter frustration over prices continued to mount.
Senator John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, acknowledged on NBC News’s Meet the Press that the war would probably not end by November and expressed concern that voters were “not especially happy about the war in Iran.”
Democratic strategist James Carville observed that Trump appeared to be losing his grip on the Republican Party simply because his own voters were turning away from him — proof of that can be seen in the numbers brought up by NBC.
What Trump has said about the midterms
Trump is approaching the 2026 midterms with characteristic confidence. In early January, he told Reuters that the GOP shouldn’t even have to hold elections given his accomplishments.
As the election cycle kicked into high gear, Trump committed to an aggressive campaign schedule. By September, he pledged to hit the trail for 35 competitive races, promising to visit every single one during the final 30 days before Election Day.
Trump also remains confident about his appeal to voters, even as his numbers slipped. Last year in December he downplayed concerns about economic timing, telling the Wall Street Journal he couldn’t predict whether his policies would kick in before November.
He did, however, warn early on that losing Congress would derail his agenda, saying it would lead to “very bad things.”
“We got to win the midterms. That means Senate. And it means House. We gotta win,” he added.