MSFT worst – Microsoft shares are down more than 24% year-to-date through June 24 and are on track for their worst first-half since 2000, as retail sentiment on Stocktwits turns bearish and traders point to a disconnect between surging memory-chip momentum and weak hypersc
By early Thursday, Microsoft was already one of the most-talked-about names on Stocktwits—less because traders were celebrating a rebound, and more because they were trying to explain a slump that just keeps widening.
MSFT is down 24% year-to-date through June 24, putting it on track for its worst first-half performance since 2000. The drop is a sharp reversal from the strong gains of recent years. a turnaround that traders and investors have tied to Microsoft’s early partnership with OpenAI and the rollout of AI across its cloud and software businesses.
That gap between Microsoft’s AI promise and the market’s mood showed up immediately in sentiment. Stocktwits sentiment for MSFT flipped to “bearish” from “bullish” early Thursday. Traders on the platform pointed to a strange imbalance inside the AI trade: semiconductor momentum has been running hot. while the biggest software and cloud players have struggled.
“$MSFT so let me get this straight, memory chips keep on rallying and making new highs while their customer hyperscalers keep making new lows, makes perfect sense,” one trader wrote.
Another message went further, taking aim at the “Magnificent Seven” even as chip stocks celebrated recent results. “$AMZN $NVDA $NVDA $META $MSFT $GOOGL So glad I bought Micron. MAG7 holders are all brain dead giving all their cash to us at 86% margin. Pure profit!. Get brutally mugged by memory, Mag7 bagholders!”.
The retail argument has a spark of timing behind it: Micron reported blowout quarterly results on Wednesday, a move that helped drive shares of Micron and other semiconductor firms sharply higher. While the chip rally lifted the broader group, Microsoft’s performance stood out as lagging.
The contrast is stark inside the “AI trade.” Microsoft is among the most-watched names. yet it is the worst-performing stock in the “Magnificent Seven” group. and traders see little reason to expect a quick reversal. Chip stocks such as Intel. Micron and Western Digital have risen nearly four times in the first six months of the year. even as Big Tech has faced pressure amid a broader selloff in software stocks and rising competition.
Valuation is part of what’s feeding the back-and-forth. Microsoft’s Windows developer trades at 20.2 times its forward earnings, its lowest PE ratio since late 2016, according to Koyfin data.
The market’s competitive pressure also isn’t happening in a vacuum. Alphabet’s Google Gemini advances have helped lift GOOGL shares, while Anthropic continues to rapidly expand its AI offerings.
Microsoft has also been looking for ways to defend and reshape its strategy. It has reportedly explored restructuring its Xbox business, and it is considering integrating China’s low-cost DeepSeek models into its Copilot platform, among other moves.
Still, the retail mood on Stocktwits doesn’t match what Wall Street’s broader consensus looks like. Analysts are overwhelmingly upbeat about Microsoft. Out of 56 analysts tracked on Koyfin. 53 rate the stock a “Buy” or higher. and the remaining three rate it a “Hold.” Their average price target of $561.39 implies 53% upside from the stock’s closing price on Monday.
If the stock’s first half has been a story of pressure—24% down through June 24. sentiment turning bearish. and Microsoft set for its weakest first-half since 2000—the counterpoint is that the valuation reset and the AI narrative haven’t convinced analysts to step away. For traders watching the disconnect between memory-chip strength and hyperscaler weakness. the question now is simple: whether Microsoft can catch up before the mood hardens further.
MSFT stock Microsoft Stocktwits semiconductor stocks memory chips Micron AI trade Magnificent Seven valuation forward earnings Koyfin