Wholesale motor oil prices are rising fast as industry executives warn of imminent shortages tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Middle Eastern oil facilities. The risk, they say, is that low-viscosity motor oil—especially 0W-16, 0W-8, an
For drivers who plan their maintenance around the calendar, the calendar no longer feels reliable.
Wholesale motor oil prices are rising rapidly. and some industry executives are warning that shortages could be coming soon—linked to the war with Iran. The pressure is building in a narrow but crucial part of the oil market. where a shipping choke point and damage to key facilities have squeezed supplies used to make some of the most common grades of motor oil.
The fear is not just higher costs. It’s the possibility that popular motor oils will run short, pushing drivers to delay getting their oil changed or move toward “suboptimal lubricants,” in the words of industry leaders tracking the situation.
“We’re looking at shortages — I have no doubt in my mind,” Holly Alfano, CEO of the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA), an industry trade group, told CNN. “It’s a big mess — and it’s not going to be resolved quickly. It could take a year or so before we see any real relief.”
The surge in prices has already been startling. Tom Glenn, president and founder of Petroleum Trends International and publisher of industry publication JobbersWorld, has chronicled multiple rounds of steep motor oil price hikes since the war started.
“Three rounds of price increases over two and a half months is unheard of. And the magnitude is stunning,” Glenn told CNN. “I’ve been in this business since 1979, and I’ve never seen anything quite like this.”
Glenn said motor oil producers normally raise prices for distributors by 70 to 80 cents a gallon in a typical year. But this year, he said, some producers have lifted prices on distributors buying in bulk by $5 or more a gallon.
ILMA warns the situation is most threatening for low-viscosity grades. including 0W-16. 0W-8 and 0W-20—described as the most important grade of motor oil on the market today. ILMA and Glenn both point to demand for these formulations in newer vehicles: 0W-20 accounts for roughly one-third of total passenger car motor oil demand last year. according to Petroleum Trends International.
The price increases are being driven by a wider chain of costs, from crude oil and base oils to additives, transportation, packaging and logistics.
But the bottleneck, ILMA says, goes deeper. Almost half—44%—of the most important base oil used to make motor oil, known as Group III, comes from just three Persian Gulf producers, according to ILMA.
Those supplies have been disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the war started in late February. And ILMA also points to a specific blow to production capacity: Pearl GTL. the world’s largest gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant located in Qatar. was attacked and seriously damaged in Iran. ILMA says that has knocked one of the leading suppliers of Group III base oils offline indefinitely.
ILMA said in a bulletin published last week that “The US is expected to run out of Mideast Gulf-origin Group III by June.”
The options aren’t straightforward. ILMA says that normally the United States would turn to South Korea to fill the gap. but Asian refiners rely on the Strait of Hormuz for much of their crude. At the same time. Asian refiners that do have access to crude are focused on producing as much jet fuel and diesel as possible to capture historically high profit margins.
Motor oil can also be made with Group II base oils. But ILMA says those materials are being diverted to diesel to meet demand and historically high margins.
“The Group II safety valve is effectively closed,” ILMA said in its bulletin.
Alfano said ILMA is hearing anecdotal reports that certain parts of the United States are already facing shortages.
“It’s going to really get intense this summer,” she said.
The industry has been in contact with the Energy Department. Alfano said the group held talks on Friday with lieutenants to Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
“They are turning over every stone. I have been impressed with that,” Alfano said. “Unfortunately, there is not a whole lot they can do. There is no easy answer.”
She added that while two new lubricant production facilities are slated to come online in the United States, they are not expected to start until next year.
Still, the administration says it anticipated short-term disruption. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement that the President and his entire energy team anticipated short-term disruptions to global energy markets from Operation Epic Fury and had a plan prepared to mitigate these disruptions. Rogers pointed to steps including waiving the Jones Act.
Rogers said the administration is working closely with the private sector and industry to address concerns, “explore potential actions, and inform the President’s policy decisions.” She added that energy markets will stabilize and prices will “plummet” as Trump works to end the conflict.
The Department of Energy said it is prepared to respond if needed. Ben Dietderich, press secretary for the Department of Energy, said in a statement the department is “ready to take additional action, if needed, to help avoid supply disruptions.”
Private companies are also trying to steady customers’ expectations. Valvoline. which operates 2. 400 retail oil change service centers. said in a statement that it has not significantly raised prices and has “adequate supply to serve our customers today and for the foreseeable future.” Valvoline said it is working closely with its supplier to “proactively manage any potential impact from the current market environment.”.
Leading auto parts retailers, including AutoZone, Advance Auto Parts and Jiffy Lube, did not respond to requests for comment.
Trade groups are closely watching the market’s mechanical ripple effects. Mason Hamilton. chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute. said the trade group is “closely monitoring how the conflict in the Middle East may affect the motor oil market.” Hamilton added that API has already invoked emergency provisional licensing to give companies flexibility to pivot to alternative base oil supplies not impacted by the war.
Michael Chung, senior director of market intelligence at the Auto Care Association, a trade group that represents automotive suppliers, distributors, maintenance and repair companies, told CNN that drivers should expect another hit to their wallet—even if they delay maintenance that isn’t critical.
“We are still bullish on the aftermarket, but we recognize there are going to be supply chain challenges with motor oil availability and prices in the short term,” Chung said. “We expect it to translate to higher prices ultimately for the consumer.”
Glenn believes workarounds will ultimately show up, but says the industry will pay for them. He pointed out that America relies on cars and trucks, and that shutting down isn’t an option.
“America is not going to stop driving cars. Trucks are not going to stop delivering goods. We’re not going to come to a grinding halt,” Glenn said.
One possible approach, Glenn said, is that automakers may temporarily authorize the use of slightly higher viscosity motor oil that require much less Group III base oil.
Other band-aids include changing the recommendations from automakers on how frequently they recommend vehicle owners get oil changes, and producers temporarily relying more on Group II base oil to make motor oil.
But those stopgaps carry risks—potentially damaging or compromising the long-term viability of engines.
“It will be ugly to see how this is done,” Glenn said. “But I think they will find a solution. Quitting is not an option. We’ll find a way to keep America moving.”
motor oil shortage Strait of Hormuz Group III base oil ILMA 0W-20 0W-16 0W-8 Pearl GTL Valvoline American Petroleum Institute Auto Care Association