Mortgage rates climbed to the highest level in nearly nine months, while gasoline prices stayed elevated and retailers prepared for tax refunds to run out. At the same time, unemployment claims edged down and Wall Street pushed toward a ninth straight winning
The news hits two different places on the same day: the bank account and the stock ticker.
This week, the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate moved to its highest level in nearly nine months. climbing to 6.51% for the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage—up from 6.36% last week. according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. For Americans trying to buy a home during a season when housing activity usually ramps up. that shift means higher borrowing costs at exactly the wrong time.
Even with the increase, the average rate still sits below 6.86%, where it was a year ago. But the direction matters. Mortgage rates have been trending mostly higher since the war with Iran began. and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has roiled energy markets. Crude oil prices jumped sharply, a key driver of inflation. Expectations of higher oil prices, along with worries about big and growing debts for the U.S. government and others, have pushed up long-term bond yields—helping steer mortgage rates upward.
At the grocery store and the gas pump, the price pressure is already visible. Retailers have spent months dealing with an uncertain economy shaped by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the higher cost of gasoline. Gasoline prices rose again this week, ending at about $4.55 per gallon on Friday, according to AAA. That leaves gas prices about 45% above where they were at this time last year.
In that environment, retailers are watching what comes after the temporary relief of tax refunds. Shoppers are still spending. helped by more generous tax refunds. based on quarterly financial reports from Walmart. Target. Home Depot. Lowe’s and TJX. But economists broadly expect that once those refunds dry up. consumer spending will pull back—an issue because consumer spending remains the dominant economic engine for the U.S. and any retreat would ripple outward.
Signs of uneven expectations were visible in corporate forecasts. Walmart issued a forecast for the current quarter on Thursday that was weaker than what Wall Street had been expecting. Target raised its annual revenue outlook on Wednesday. saying it expected momentum to continue the rest of the year—though the upgraded sales expectations were still below the pace of the first quarter.
The job market, meanwhile, offered a small piece of steadiness even as economists describe broader unease. U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 16 fell by 3,000 to 209,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet had forecast 213,000 new applications.
Weekly filings for unemployment benefits are often treated as a near real-time proxy for layoffs. And despite historically low layoffs. the labor market appears stuck in what economists call a “low-hire. low-fire” state—keeping the unemployment rate low at 4.3%. while leaving many out of work struggling to find new jobs.
On Wall Street, the mood looks almost disconnected from these day-to-day pressures. U.S. stocks rose toward the finish of an eighth straight winning week on Friday, the longest such streak since 2023. The stretch is building even as a survey showed on the same day that U.S. consumers are feeling worse about the economy, widening the split between investors’ optimism and household reality.
The latest movers were Workday and Zoom Communications. both of which rose after delivering better profit reports for the latest quarter than analysts expected. They were also among companies topping analysts’ expectations for profits for the start of 2026. adding to a steady stream of results that has helped keep U.S. stocks near their records. Stock prices tend to follow the long-term path of corporate profits.
Taken together, the week’s numbers trace a familiar divide: financial markets appear to be looking past today’s strain, while borrowing costs, gasoline prices, and the timing of consumer refunds are shaping how Americans plan their next purchases—and whether a home is still within reach.
mortgage rates Freddie Mac 30-year fixed Iran war Strait of Hormuz gasoline prices AAA tax refunds unemployment claims Labor Department 209 000 Wall Street winning streak Workday Zoom Communications Walmart forecast Target outlook