Bo Bichette’s start with the New York Mets has been far below expectations for a $126 million deal, with his production trailing his underlying numbers. His run includes a steep drop from expected batting metrics and a league-leading total of “Good Fielding Pl
The unease around Bo Bichette has followed him through the New York Mets’ season so far. and the numbers through the first 46 games are hard to dress up.. After signing for $126 million. the infielder has been far from the kind of output that contract demands—hitting just .210 with two home runs. 18 RBIs and a stolen base across his first 46 games.
Even with that disappointing line staring everyone down. the conversation around Bichette has shifted toward one uncomfortable question: how much of his slump is truly his. and how much is simply what’s happened to him?. Entering Sunday. Ken Rosenthal highlighted a massive gap between what Bichette has been able to produce and what his underlying batting profile suggested he should.
Rosenthal pointed to a 67-point drop from Bichette’s .277 expected batting average to his actual .210 mark. calling it the fifth largest in the league among hitters with a minimum of 150 plate appearances.. He also cited a 127-point drop from Bichette’s .398 expected slugging percentage to his actual .271 mark. described as the second largest.
Another angle came through a different type of luck metric.. Sports Info Solutions. via Mark Simon. focused on “Good Fielding Plays”—defined as plays that require extra effort and still produce a positive result.. Entering Sunday, Bichette led the majors with 14 Good Fielding Plays against him.. That total stood in stark contrast to last season. when he had only eight such plays over the course of the year.
What makes the situation tense for the Mets is the mismatch in the story the surface stats are telling versus the narrower set of evidence about balls being handled exceptionally well.. The raw results haven’t improved enough to quiet concern. and the contract price keeps the spotlight squarely on his swing and his production.
Still, there’s a familiar hinge in the way baseball fans talk about slumps: the law of averages.. The premise here isn’t that fortune guarantees anything. but that if the level of bad luck suggested by the expected-vs-actual drops and the Good Fielding Plays is real. then a shift becomes at least imaginable.. If it doesn’t—if Bichette remains “downtrodden. ” as the language puts it—the season would carry a sharper sting because the underlying numbers wouldn’t offer the usual cushion.
Bichette, for his part, is at least aware of what’s been going wrong. He is committed to improving, and New York is hoping he walks into some of the luck that would help close the gap between expectation and reality.
The pattern is plain in the data presented: Bichette’s expected batting average (.277) and expected slugging (.398) have both fallen dramatically below his actual marks (.210 batting average and .271 slugging). and that same stretch is paired with a league-leading 14 Good Fielding Plays made against him—up from eight all of last season.
Bo Bichette New York Mets baseball contract $126 million expected batting average expected slugging Good Fielding Plays .210 .277 .398
Mets really overpaid for that .210 stuff.
I don’t get how he’s unlucky when it’s just baseball and he can’t hit. 126 mil though… that’s insane.
Wait “good fielding plays against him” makes it sound like the fielding is still good? Like he’s doing the right stuff but somehow losing anyway? Either way, if his expected numbers are better than what he’s doing, they need a new hitting coach or something.
Expected average this, expected slugging that… sounds like make-believe stats. .210 is .210. Plus “good fielding plays” or whatever is probably just a fancy way of saying he’s not making highlight catches. I’m sure he’ll turn it around once the Mets stop playing him like a DH or whatever.